The defeat of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in assembly elections in the three Indian heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan was the most severe since the party assumed power on the back of a landslide victory in parliamentary polls in May, 2014.

While BJ P had been in power in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh for the last 15 years having won three successive assembly polls, the desert state of Rajasthan lived up to its billing as a political “revolving door” because it has not returned any incumbent party for more than one five-year term since 1993.

Three key reasons are responsible for the BJP's loss in the three key states—(1) farmers' anger over sharply falling prices of foodgrains, rising input costs and drought (2) the Modi government's “failure" to deliver on the promises of jobs for the youth and (3) growing resentment among the Dalits. The Congress has successfully tapped into the discontent among the three important segments of the electorate—farmers, youth and Dalits—that led to the downfall of the BJP governments in these states.

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have a large agrarian population and the BJP's drubbing could be interpreted as farm, youth and Dalit unrest The farmers resentment mounted in Madhya Pradesh when nine of them were killed in police firing last year while protesting the agrarian crisis. In the assembly polls dominated more by local issues and grievances, the BJP faced heavy anti-incumbency compounded by a widespread perception of corruption, inaccessible leaders and ministers and the large gaps between several welfare schemes for farmers and their implementation on the ground. The hugely unpopular demonitisation drive (scrapping of high-value currency notesofRs 1000 and Rs 500) in November 2016 that badly hit the industries and a nationwide uniform goods and services tax (GST) also played a crucial role.

On the other hand, the assembly elections in the three heartland states were a crucial test for Congress President Rahul Gandhi and the results will undoubtedly cement his position as the top leader of the 133-year-old party to take on the BJP in a straight contest in the coming parliamentary polls. The win will also enhance 48-year-old's image as the main leader of an anti-BJP front in dealing with the more experienced, firebrand and ambitious politicians of regional parties like Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Sharad Pawar and some others.