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US trade conflicts weigh on robust growth

AFP, Washington
Robust US GDP growth continued in the third quarter but at a slower pace just ahead of key congressional elections, while the economy faces mounting headwinds from trade wars, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Coming just 11 days before a nail-biting midterm vote that could shift the balance of power in Washington, the new figures show the world's largest economy still has a big head of steam after tax cuts and fiscal stimulus enacted over the last year.
However, economists say the underlying numbers offer grounds for concern.
GDP grew at a brisk annual rate of 3.5 percent for the July-September period, according to the government's initial estimate, down sharply from 4.2 percent growth in the prior quarter but still overshooting analyst expectations.
The result made for the strongest sixmonth period since mid-2014 and puts growth above the prevailing trend for most of the recovery since the Great Recession, although it is based on preliminary data subject to revision.
President Donald Trump is banking on faster growth to pay for the December tax cuts and increased government spending, which nevertheless drove the US budget deficit to a six-year high in the most recent fiscal year.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the economic growth had defied “conventional wisdom" and credited the Trump administration's economic policies.
"The president's actions from deregulation to tax reform have supercharged the American economy, driving it to new heights,' he said in a statement.
But economists say growth should slow in the coming quarters as tax cuts and fiscal stimulus recede into the past while inflation mounts, interest rates rise, protectionist trade measures continue to bite and growth slows in the world’s other major economies.
"The latest health check-up revealed an ageing but still robust US economy," Oxford Economics said in an analytical note.
"However, the doctor recommends avoiding any unnecessary exposure to cold headwinds.”
Republican candidates appear to have shied away from campaigning on the tax cuts, as some voters remain skeptical of claims they have directly helped ordinary Americans.
Officials said the GDP results also reflected damage from Hurricane Florence but they could not precisely estimate the impact on growth.
Consumers and companies were still enjoying a cash boost from the tax cuts, according to the Commerce Department. Personal consumption rose four percent, the fastest since the end of 2014.