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Inflation inches up

Star Business Report
Inflation went up 11 basis points to 6.36 percent in July, compared to the previous month, on the back of a non-food price increase.
The figure was announced less than a week after Bangladesh Bank admitted it would face challenges in bringing down inflation to 6.2 percent, the government's target for the current fiscal year.
The concerns over inflation prompted the regulator to keep the policy rates unchanged.
Food inflation went down 25 basis points to 6.07 percent in the first month of the current fiscal year, compared to June, while non-food inflation increased 65 basis points to 6.8 percent, according to Planning Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal who released the data yesterday.
"The price hike of non-food items is responsible for the latest rise in inflation," he said. In June, overall inflation fell by 79 basis points, compared with the previous month, to stand at 6.25 percent.
The planning minister said people spent more on non-food items than the
food items during Eid-ul-Fitr last month.
Bangladesh Bank last week released the Monetary Policy Statement for the first half of the fiscal year where the main focus was on controlling inflation.
Some economists suggested loosening the policy slightly to boost investment and recommended increasing the private sector credit growth target to convince investors to pourmore money into theirprojects.
The central bank aims to achieve the private sector credit growth target of 15 percent by June next year, while the target was 15.5 percent in last June.
The repo and reverse repo rates have been kept unchanged at 7.25 percent and 5.25 percent respectively.
Gains in inflation decline earned in recent months have not made a case for easing of policy interest rates, given that both headline point-to-point CPI (consumer price index) inflation and core CPI inflation have edged up recently.
The fall in general inflation mainly came from the declining food prices. Food inflation fell from 7.68 percent in January 2015 to 6.68 percent in June of the same year.
The MPS said, although expectations owing to the global fuel price might have played a positive role in dampening inflationary concerns, the food component that occupies almost 60 percent of the consumption basket played the major role in pulling the general inflation figure downward.
The central bank said, based on just
food prices, which are more volatile in nature, it will not be prudent to expect that general inflation and in particular nonfood and non-fuel core inflation will be falling when non-food inflation is rising.
"Hence, Bangladesh Bank remains cautious on inflation and is refraining from policy rate easing right away,” it said.
The central bank said an economy cannot thrive without macro stability, which requires moderate inflation and price stability.
The central bank sees a range of 4 to 6 percent inflation as moderate.
The upper limit of the range may move further up if the economy is accelerating at 7 percent or above. Then affording an inflation rate of 7 or 8 percent will be necessary to absorb the speeding up of employment, output, and wages, the central bank said.