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Exports to drive growth in 2015: SCB

Star Business Report
Bangladesh is expected to register higher growth this fiscal year than the previous one, on the back of a rebound in exports, particularly of garment products, in the first half of 2015, Standard Chartered Bank said.
“Bangladesh is in a restructuring and recovery mode after a difficult 2013-14," the British bank said in its latest roundup of the world economy.
But growth is expected to come out at 6.3 percent in fiscal 2014-15, up from last year's "respectable 6.1 percent".
The improvement is likely to be driven by an export growth recovery in the second half of fiscal 2014-15, increased consumer spending driven by higher wages and lower inflation, and higher infrastructure spending as the government seeks to boost development spending.
Major infrastructure projects are expected to gain much traction in the coming months, which could provide “significant impetus to growth”.
In the outgoing year, contracts for Padma bridge construction and river navigability have been awarded, while work on the four-lane of the Dhaka-Chittagong highway - a critical project to ease transport-related trade costs — resumed.
Construction of an offshore liquefied natural gas terminal too is underway, while the finalisation of government contracts for construction of the Sonadia deep-sea port and an onshore LNG terminal is expected in the coming months.
While the ongoing restructuring in the apparel sector has weighed on export growth, it is highly expected to bounce back in the first half of 2015, with a pick-up already witnessed in November's data.
Garment products, which typically account for the bulk of export receipts, brought in $ 1.94 billion in November, up 10.22 percent year-on-year, according to data from Export Promotion Bureau.
"Bangladesh's apparel industry is fundamentally cost competitive, and
several major international retailers remain positive on manufacturing in the country," the report said.
Exports raked in $12.07 billion between July and November, up 0.92 percent year-on-year but short of its target by $670 million.
Given slowing export growth and resilient imports, the trade deficit has widened since the start of fiscal 2014-14.
Remittance growth has improved since the elections, but not as strongly as expected. Further government efforts to increase manpower exports and remittance inflows are needed to ensure a sustainable outlook for the current account surplus, it said.
In light of this, the report predicts the surplus to narrow this fiscal year, which is likely to put depreciation pressure on the taka in 2015.
Inflation has moderated substantially, to 6.2 percent in November from an average of 7.5 percent between January and June this year.
The fall has been driven entirely by food inflation, which, in turn,
has been driven by better management of food supply, a good rice crop and lower food inflation in India, which affects food-price trends in Bangladesh.
So far, the fall in international crude oil prices has not yet been passed on to consumers. The government has stated that if current trends in global commodity prices persist, then it will lower domestic retail prices as well.
"This marks an important downside risk to the inflation trajectory, and could open the door to expectations of a rate cut from the Bangladesh Bank."
So far, the fuel price declines are being used to offset previous sub-sidy-related losses. Complete elimination of the fuel subsidy would present a substantial fiscal windfall, as it accounts for 0.8-0.9 percent of GDP.
"Together with the re-basing of GDP, this suggests that the fiscal deficit (as a percentage of GDP) is likely to positively surprise in fiscal 2014-15," the report added.