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CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN ASIA

A critical dilemma

Md. Saidul Islam
FEEDING the people of the planet puts a lot of stress on the environment. Farming takes more than 40% of land and half the world's available freshwater. We may need to raise productivity by 70% by 2050. The simplest way to grow more food is to use more land, but it would come with a major environmental cost. Climate change, too, is putting a lot of strain on our food supply. The challenges and dilemmas we are facing today include how to grow more using less in a sustainable manner; how to optimise the entire food value chain reducing the carbon footprint from field to fork; protect the environment and support biological diversity; better the lives of rural populations; and contribute to the growth of the world economy.
The world population now stands at 7 billion, and one in seven of these people are already hungry. The world population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. What does that mean for food security and hunger? With almost 870 million people chronically undernourished in 2010-2012, the number of hungry people in the world remains unacceptably high.
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, most of these people are found in Asia. It is clear from the regional impacts of the 2008 food crisis that the central dilemma for Asia is how to guarantee food security in the context of growing demands of food while the production of food itself is constrained by, among other things, climate change.
Despite Asia's unprecedented economic growth and advances in science and technology, there has been an increase in poverty, and stagnation in average crop yields. The problem of food security remains a major challenge because of destabilising factors such as competition for land, rural-urban migration, rapid urbanisation, population growth, climate change, and the increasing shortages of energy and water.
Currently, the Asia region is home to two-thirds of the world's poor, with 947 million people living on less than $1.25 per day. To feed the growing population, we may need to raise productivity by 70% by 2050. However, the attempt to increase food production has become a major food security challenge, which is now compounded by climate change. Similar to food security, climate change is a multidimensional issue. The impacts of climate change on the four dimensions of food security—availability, physical and economic access, and utilisation—are complex as these impacts are also linked to other factors influencing changing climate.
Scientific findings have shown that rising temperatures increasingly affect food crops. It is projected that, based on a scenario of an increase of 2 degrees Celsius, without taking into account changes in rainfall patterns, production of major food crops would decline.
In the last century, dietary patterns of wealthy buyers shifted from traditional food to wheat-based diet to high value foods such as meat, fruits and vegetables to exotic foods (shrimp, lobster, shark fins etc.). Despite these food revolutions, food security remains a critical issue for many.
While some experts argue that an increase in food production to meet future demand is inevitable, others suggest that to reduce world hunger, economic growth needs to be accompanied by purposeful and decisive public action as well as inclusion of the poor in the process. The latter group of experts also suggests that feeding the middles class of the world is actually draining the resources of the planet and taking the resources away from the poor, with climate change exacerbating it. Increased productivity is perhaps a part of the solution, but the real solution lies in "global food justice." This includes creating access to food, finding alternative sources of food, changing food habits away from exotic foods to more environmentally-friendly ones, establishing a global food bank for the impoverished, and global food governance.
Climate change pushes national and regional actors to embark upon numerous initiatives, for example, food security initiatives. As these initiatives are often driven not by a genuine intention to protect the environment, ensure food security, and address the need of the poor, but by protecting a "green facade" and finding economic opportunities alone, the chances of success through such initiatives are slim. Though there are prospects for regional cooperation and opportunities, competing and conflicting interests on power and resources further fragment the region.
Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to tackle climate change as well as accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition unless it is accompanied by robust public policies accompanied by consultations with the poor and disadvantaged. Food security can be sufficiently solved by higher income and trade, with distribution/equality improvements.
The writer Is Assistant Professor of Sociology, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
E-mail: msaidul@ntu.edu. sg