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Trade surplus for first time

But no recipe for cheer

Rejaul Karim Byron and Md Fazlur Rahman
For the first time in its history, Bangladesh recorded a trade surplus in a month, but it was because of a decline in imports indicating signs of slowing down of the economy.
The trade surplus stood at $195 million in July, the first month of the current fiscal year. There was a deficit of $129 million in the same month a year ago, according to data from the central bank.
In an immediate reaction, a central bank official said it was the first time a trade surplus happened in the country's history.
Both export and import growths were negative in July. But it was the steep fall in imports that contributed to the surplus.
In July, exports dropped 1.03 percent to $2.96 billion from the same month a year ago, while imports plummeted by 11.36 percent to $2.77 billion.
Historical figures suggested that total imports were always higher than total exports, even in case of major drop in import payments.
"It is a rare achievement," Zahid Hussain, a leading economist of the World Bank in Dhaka, told The Daily Star.
"The phenomenon is quite amazing but the news is not a good one. Had exports performance outsmarted import performance, then it would have been a good piece of news for us, “ he said.
He added that the export sector performed badly, but the performance of the import sector was even worse.
The economist said the trade surplus despite very low export growth is largely a reflection of import decline. “Although we don't know the composition, it most likely reflects import decline across the board.
"If so, it is an indication of a slow and lacklustre economy. So, there is no reason to celebrate the trade surplus."
A central bank senior official said the fall in exports was a seasonal one.
"Exporters have already exported merchandises for the summer season ... but they have not yet shipped the products aimed at the winter season," said the official, seeking anonymity.
About the low import growth, the banker
said Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, the sole importer of petroleum products, brought in a huge quantity of petroleum products in the three to four months prior to July to help the country avoid any major price fluctuation in the international market.
Importers also brought in a huge quantity of consumer goods ahead of July to meet the high demand in Ramadan. The businessmen had some stocks and sold the unsold goods in July, he said.
He also said the import narrowed from a very high base in July last year. "As a result, it is showing a negative figure although it is going down gradually."
Imports of capital machinery were down by 13 percent. Raw materials imports also went down by 11 percent.
Likewise, food grain imports dropped 43 percent. Petroleum products, which form a major part of the imports, saw a slide of 43 percent in case of LC opening.
Imports have been on a downward trend for a couple of years due to weak investment demand caused by political uncertainty.
The investment has not peaked after the January 5 election, as investors are still worried about the return of volatile political arena in the near future.