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Enlarging terrorist footprints in South Asia
**So what should one make of the recent Zawahiri announcement? There is logic in the initial comments of the Al-Qaeda watchers who felt that the move was to reinvigorate the core group and in particular replenish the void left by the departure of many of its rank and file who had chosen to join the splinter groups.**
ZAWAHIRI has got the alarm bells ringing in the region with his latest announcement expressing his intention to set up base in India of his terrorist organisation. And if reports regarding the IS' attempt seeking inroads into South Asia are true, then the South Asian countries, particularly Bangladesh, are looking at a very real threat to the region that has felt only the tremor and not the blast of full grown terrorism,
the kind of which some parts of the world has witnessed, particularly after9/ll, and are still enduring.
It is after substantial gap that Al-Qaeda has made any comment on its future plans, to enlarge its focus and direct it towards the subcontinent. His comments are interesting and raise several questions. One should be as much interested to learn about the purpose of the public articulation of the terror group’s future projects as much as the compulsions behind the expressed plan — of turning its gaze towards the other countries of South Asia. Why would a terrorist organisation expose its operational strategy when doing so would only allow the targeted countries to take countermeasures and thus defeat its objective? And this is
where we should start our inquiry into the whys and wherefores of Zawahiri's announcement.
Al-Qaeda is a composite of many subgroups of affiliates that have, in some cases, broken off from the main body for several reasons. One being that it was becoming increasingly difficult to maintain adequate and effective control and command of the affiliates that are spread over more than 30 locations in several regions of the world. Another being the falling out of some of its affiliates with the Al-Qaeda core group due to regional and local compulsions and clash of interests, as is the case with the Islamic State (IS) which has detached itself from Al-Qaeda and is now operating independently in Syria and Iraq.
So what should one make of the recent Zawahiri announcement? There is logic in the initial comments of the Al-Qaeda watchers who felt that the move was to reinvigorate the core group and in particular replenish the void left by the departure of many of its rank and file who had chosen to join the splintergroups. But it is also because the terrorist group wanted to reassert its presence to the international community. Admittedly, although it still presents
significant threat to US interest, Al-Qaeda's activities had been dwindling over the last several years, more so after the IS broke away from Al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2013. According to an expert writing in The Guardian in August 2013, "Al Qaeda leadership is a shattered remnant, reduced to begging funds and munitions from local allies and with its most capable members heading to Syria. But western analysts say the group retains the ability to regenerate quickly and dangerously and its ideology remains a potent threat around the world, as the closure of US embassies across the Middle East this week shows." Its recent announcement, given the reaction in Delhi and Dhaka, bears out this statement.
It is pertinent to ask if the establishments in these two countries have gone into an overdrive with their reactions after the Zawahiri broadcast. For good reason the reactions in Delhi and Dhaka have been different. Predictably India went into a state of alert at national level, and that which perhaps helped nab four IS contacts in India while they were crossing over into Bangladesh. However, by generating the type of reaction in these two countries, particularly the media reaction in Bangladesh, the Al-Qaeda has achieved its first objective - a very wide publicity and attention. The question is how will the terrorist group implement its plan in the rest of South Asia, its presence being already there in Afghanistan and Pakistan?
One should point out that the problem evolving from the announcement
for India and Bangladesh are very different. In India their target is the minority which the Al-Qaeda feels is in distress. It is to the majority in Bangladesh that the terrorist organisation has addressed its message. Our approach to the issue would therefore be differently nuanced.
It would be erroneous to think that Zawahiri's pronouncements portend a cataclysm for us in the near future. But there is a proviso - to thwart Al-Qaeda advances inside ur territory there must be an absence of such condition as could be exploited by Al-Qaeda.
What the intelligence agencies in our country should be looking for now is to assess the likely ways Al-Qaeda might operationalise its newly announced plan. I am inclined to think that it would not consider undertaking any action that would disturb the generally peaceful situation in Bangladesh. But whatever way Al-Qaeda may chose as a means of ingress into this country their success would depend on the degree of local support and sympathy. It is the level of support and the sympathy for this group is what the agencies must unearth.
The writer is Editor, OP-Ed and Defence & Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star