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Investors' focus switches to other emerging markets

Reuters, London
Elections from Jakarta to Johannesburg have calmed investors' worst fears about political risk in emerging markets this year, but voting in Cairo and Kiev and instability in Thailand and elsewhere are creating new concerns.
Polls in the so-called Fragile Five economies - Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa - topped investors' list of political worries for 2014.
As these countries were dubbed 'fragile' because of their reliance on foreign investor flows to shore up government balance sheets, elections were seen likely to lead to more spending and more instability.
Presidential polls in Brazil and Turkey are still to come, but parliamentary elections in India and South Africa and local elections in Turkey have been greeted with enthusiasm by investors.
In India, the result was a resounding victory for the business-friendly opposition and in South Africa and Turkey there were strong performances by the ruling parties, who have already shown some willingness to tackle problems.
Uncertainty remains ahead of a presidential poll in Indonesia, following parliamentary elections last month, but markets there are also relatively unscathed.
"So far, elections have not delivered what was feared - political uncertainty," said Jorge de Mariscal, chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Wealth Management.
"So far, elections have resulted in better
outcomes for (financial) markets."
The outcome for October elections in Brazil may be less comfortable for investors as incumbent leftist President Dilma Rousseff has been gaining in the polls.
However, in all of these markets, credit default swaps, often used as a proxy for measuring political risk, have fallen sharply. This also reflects a more positive view than six months ago on the extent of monetary stimulus in developed markets, which has kept U.S. yields relatively subdued and supported high-yielding assets.
Emerging market equities have risen 4 percent this year, outperforming developed market peers, after falling 5 percent last year.
Brazil's five-year credit default swaps (CDS), used to protect against default or restructuring of debt, have dropped nearly 50 basis points this year, to 155 bps, according to data provider Markit.
That means it costs $155,000 a year for five years to insure $ 10 million of Brazilian debt against default.
South Africa's CDS have fallen 30 bps this year to one-year lows of 170 bps, while Turkish CDS have dropped by 50 bps, also to 170 bps.
Instead, worries have switched to the outcome of elections this weekend in Ukraine and Egypt, the security situation in Nigeria and this week's coup in Thailand.
The flare-up between Ukraine and Russia, which led to the annexation by Russia of Crimea following the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich, has made investors wary about trading these countries' assets.