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Thailand: What does the future hold for democracy?

Tahmina Rahman
Thai army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha looked very calm and confident on TV while announcing the total military control of the country. Why shouldn't he be? After all, this is the 12th successful coup that the army has staged since 1932. In fact, the delay in army intervention into Thai politics since violence broke out last December has been quite surprising to the people who are familiar with Thai politics. The 'red shirts' and 'yellow shirts' could not agree on the nature and timing of much needed political reform and rescue the country from plunging into political chaos. The uncompromising stand of both camps since the beginning of political unrest last November created the scope for the army to intervene.
Even before the military could officially claim that a coup was needed for Thailand to 'love and be at peace again,' we already knew what was happening. Only 3 days before formally taking over full control of the country and suspending the constitution, General Prayuth enforced Martial Law in Thailand and even invited the pro and antigovernment forces to reach a compromise solution. Now he is claiming that the two sides failed to work things out and the best way for Thailand to restore peace and stability is to totally ban civil and political rights.
Although he has not yet presented any elaborate plan on how to improve the current political situation in Thailand or how long it might take, history tells us that the military does not have the tendency to give up power soon. It becomes more obvious with General Prayuth declaring himself the prime minister of Thailand. But he is retiring this September. Will he be able to strike a balance between the pro and anti-government forces or will Thailand head for a deteriorating course of political violence? At this point it might be a bit early to predict accurately the future scenario. But based on the pasta and current trends in Thai politics, some informed speculations can be made.
What do these recent developments say about Thailand's precarious democracy? General Prayuth has a reputation for being a staunch Royalist and biased against the 'red shirts' supporting the Shinawatra family in Thai politics. Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai party had previously made failed attempts to warm up its relations with the general. There is a widespread fear of persecution of Pheu Thai party members and its supporters by the newly installed military regime. Already there have been reports of a number of Pheu Thai party members, including former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her family members, being detained.
Although some members of the anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee were also arrested after the military took power, some observers view it as a victory for the 'yellow shirts.' Pro-government forces have revealed their retaliatory mood on Twitter, which indicates more agitation in the coming weeks. The military has 'requested' the full co-operation of social media to stop the dissemination of messages that might stir violence, thus putting a restriction on the freedom of expression.
But the military is not the only state institution that has been a threat to democracy in Thailand. As it turns out, the judiciary also has loyal Monarchists within the system. Earlier this month, Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from the position of prime minister on the basis of a very dubious case (for her involvement in transferring national security chief to another position) by a Constitutional Court. Pro-government forces were therefore calling it a 'judicial coup.' But when that action failed to secure the interests of the pro-Royalists and did nothing to lessen the agitation on the street, the army had to intervene.
Pheu Thai and its leaders are no saints either. Some observers believe Yingluck's brother Thaksin Shinawatra took corruption to a new level by 'mixing business with personal affairs' during his rule. Yingluck and her party might have won the hearts of the rural Thai people, but she sure has antagonised a section of the urban middle class that fear that democracy would put too much power in the hands of the 'uneducated many' in the rural
areas.
The fear of losing undue privileges under a democratically elected government is not the only issue that has caused the recent political standoff. Yingluck's plan of bringing back her brother from a self-imposed exiled is what sparked the recent crisis. So the anti-government camp is not ready to see another election before some political reform takes place. But the pro-government camp wants an election first and reforms later.
This political crisis is costing the economy dearly. Thai currency Baht is sinking very fast and the tourism industry has been greatly affected. The economy has shrunk in the first quarter of the year. The country that boasted about its miraculous economic growth even a decade ago is experiencing recession now. The military rulers do not have a very good track record in restoring investors' faith. So the prospect of speculative investment withdrawal looms large over the country. During the last coup in 2006 both private sector spending and public sector investment took the hit of political turmoil. There is no reason to believe it will be any different this time.
In this eighty-two year old democracy the military still calls the shot. To some observers it is history going on a loop in Thailand. Thailand's politics follow a cyclical order - disputed election, protests against corruption of the elected government and then military coup. But some analysts see the context being changed this time. They fear that if the 'red shirts’ are convinced that they can never bring changes through ballot because of the constant resistance from the elite, they might choose a more violent path to assert their rights. Anti-coup protesters have already defied the ban on political gatherings. This is just the beginning. The next few weeks would be crucial. In a deeply divided society like Thailand, a lot will ride on how efficiently the various factions of the country respond to the coup. But there does not seem to be any clear way to end this power struggle and restore democracy in Thailand.
The writer is Lecturer, Department of International Relations,
Dhaka University.