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Economists dispute GDP growth figure

Planning Minister Mustafa Kamal says economic growth accelerated 6.12pc this fiscal year

Reiaul Karim Byron
The economy grew by 6.12 percent this fiscal year, according to a provisional estimate by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, much to the disbelief of economists.
Although the state-run statistical agency did not officially release the number, Planning Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal revealed it to reporters yesterday.
Economists were not convinced.
Independent analysts and development partners all earlier forecast that the GDP growth would drop below 6 percent this fiscal year.
The provisional estimate of the BBS using the new base year of2005-06 for the last fiscal year though turned out to be off the mark: it expected the GDP to grow by 6.18 percent but in reality it registered the growth of 6.01 percent.
In the current fiscal year, the agriculture sector made a major leap, growing by 2.46 percent, which was 1.4 percent last fiscal year.
The manufacturing sector, subdued by political unrest, sank 1.7 percentage points to reach 8.68 percent. The transport sector, which was one of the worst victims of the prolonged countrywide shutdowns, surprisingly grew by 20 basis points to 6.47 percent.
Many components of the ser- vices sector such as construction, real estate, education and hotel and tourism, also grew, according to BBS data.
However, the political turmoil in the current fiscal year inflicted a loss of $ 1.4 billion on the economy, according to a recent study from the World Bank.
The services sector accounted for 86 percent of the sum, the manufacturing sector 11 percent and agriculture 3 percent.
An official of the BBS said the GDP
grew more than six percent because six additional sectors were added to the economy in the new base year to take the total number of sectors to 21.
Zaid Bakht, research director of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, found the flattering figure “questionable", as it meant the GDP grew more than in the previous fiscal year, which was free from any bouts of political unrest, let alone a lengthy one.
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