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'Secular' gamble did not work

'Reverse polarisation' made Muslim votes ineffective

Star Report
There is a common saying in Indian politics that the road to Delhi goes through Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 seats.
The Narendra Modi wave was so powerful in Uttar Pradesh that it blurred the deeply-entrenched caste divides and loyalties of the state which have traditionally played a crucial role in winning votes.
Despite a concerted effort by "secular" parties to get Muslims to vote en bloc against BJP by raising the Gujarat riots of 2002, the saffron challenger prevailed largely because of what is being called “ reverse polarization".
In both UP and Bihar, which have a significant population of Muslims, the BJP pulled off big wins. Talking to TOI after the results were declared, BJP general-secretary Amit Shah said his party succeeded "because the number of people who are not part of the politics of vote bank are much more".
Indeed, one of the major reasons for BJP's ability to break the caste barriers is it managed to rope in a majority of the increased number of aspiring young voters across India who are more interested in moving up the economic ladder than being bogged down by old ideas of caste and religious divides.
As per the 2011 Census, Muslims are nearly 15% of India's 1.2 billion people. In 35 seats, they number around one in three voters or more. In 38 other seats, Muslims are 21-30% of the electorate. If the 145 seats where they are 11-20% are added to this, Muslim voters have the ability to influence the outcome in 218 seats.
UP and Bihar, which have 120 seats between them, have 18% and 16% share of Muslims respectively. So the "secular" gamble was not unreasonable.
In UP alone, out of 80 seats, 32 have a Muslim population of close to 15% or more. Yet, despite a serious pitch as the only force that could stop Modi, SP won only two seats, with 30 going to BJP.
Curiously, the saffron party swept all eight constituencies, including Saharanpur, Amroha, Shrawasti, Bijnor, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad and Rampur, where the Muslim population hovers around 40%. For the first time since Independence, UP has no Muslim MP.
The trend is similar in Bihar where out of the 17 seats where Muslims have more than 15%ofvotes, BJPhaswon 12.
Pollsters, going by trends of past elections, say the Muslim vote is most effective where it is around 10% of the electorate, big enough to sway the result in a multi-cornered contest, by consolidating for a single candidate.
Ironically, where Muslim presence is over 20%, their votes have been mostly ineffective. This is because of a multiplicity of Muslim candidates that divide their votes. In such constituencies, say psephologists, there is often counter-polarization of Hindu votes. In a polarized UP, it's the latter that seems to have helped the BJP.