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Ukraine caught in new Cold War

Mahmood Hasan
*** Ukraine today is a deeply divided nation and both the West and the East are trying to take advantage. Whatever happens until the election date it is the Ukrainians who will have to fend for themselves. ***
IN spite of a quadrilateral agreement to de-escalate the tension in Ukraine, the reality on the ground continues to be explosive. After Russia's annexation of Crimea on March 18, armed "Pro-Russian" militants in the eastern cities of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv started demonstrations on April 7 calling for referendum on independence. As the protestors occupied different government buildings, 40,000 Russian troops began military exercise on the eastern borders of Ukraine. This, according to the West, is a ploy by the Russians to annex the eastern provinces of Ukraine.
Alarmed by these developments Washington and Brussels called upon Russia for de-escalation. After trading harsh rhetoric, foreign ministers of Russia, United States, Ukraine and European Union finally met on April 17 in Geneva, and agreed on the following: (i) all sides must refrain from violence; (ii) all illegal armed groups to be disarmed and all establishments illegally occupied to be vacated; (iii) amnesty to protestors who surrender arms; (iv) establish national dialogue to grant more powers to regional authorities; (v) the four countries will help Kiev achieve economic and financial stability; and (vi) OSCE mission to assist Ukrainian authorities to implement de-escalation measures.
Though the agreement is a sober document and requires time to bear results, the participants have not restrained themselves from making extremely provocative statements. Threats and accusations continue to fly. As a result, the situation on the ground has become complicated as no one trusts anyone. The situation seems to be slowly getting out of hand. Violence and some deaths have been reported. The mayor of Kharkiv was shot and wounded on April 28.
President Putin warned that Ukraine was heading for civil-war. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk accused Russia of fomenting World War III and warned of war in Europe. President Obama said Russia had a 'hand' in 'disruption and chaos.' Since the beginning of the crisis, Washington has been threatening Russia with harsh sanctions, if Moscow did not help in de-escalating the crisis in eastern Ukraine.
What do Washington and Moscow want to do with Ukraine?
Since the dissolution of USSR in 1991, the West has been trying to encircle Russia and break it further, so that it does not pose any threat to Western Europe. Nato has been luring former Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe to join the military alliance - obviously against Moscow. The West has been encouraging these countries to practice 'democracy,' and has been offering money to become part of the European Union also.
Pursuing the Russia-containment policy, the GIA and US State Department-funded NGOs in Ukraine instigated the coup that dislodged President Viktor Yanukovich. The interim government in Kiev is blessed by Washington and Brussels. US announced $1 billion and EU promised another $15 billion to help Ukraine overcome the financial mess created over the years. On March 21, IMF announced a loan of $ 18 billion over the next two years to the interim government. Neo-conservatives in the West now want elections to be held on May 25 to legitimise a pro-West regime in Kiev.
Clearly, President Putin sees these as conspiracies against the Russian Federation. He does not recognise the interim government in Kiev. He is determined not to let a pro-West regime on his doorstep, just as Washington would not tolerate any pro-Russian regime in the western hemisphere. It reminds one of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev decided to station short-range nuclear missiles in Fidel Gastro's Cuba. President John Kennedy quickly put up a naval blockade to deter any Soviet vessel carrying the missiles from reaching Cuba. After a 14-day standoff the Soviet vessels returned and the crisis ended without any shots being fired.
Washington wants to pull Ukraine out of Russian orbit. However, President Obama is certainly not contemplating a military solution, though 600 LIS troops have been sent to Poland to show Nato's resolve to go to war, if need be. Nato is definitely not putting boots on Ukraine, should Russia move its troops to occupy eastern Ukraine. American neo-cons think it is not "our war" - it is a regional conflict. Rather, Washington and the European Union want to mount pressure on Russia by isolating it diplomatically. Russia has been suspended from G8. G7 has prepared new sanctions, which are supposed to be more painful economically.
The problem here is that EU countries - badly dependent on Russian gas and oil - had an overall trade of $ 416 billion (2012) with Russia, whereas US-Russia trade totaled $38 billion (2013). Putin is unlikely to capitulate to the visa ban imposed on his associates.
The West has taken care not to impose trade or economic sanctions, as that might trigger a new recession in the West. Experts say the sanctions will hurt Europe more than Russia.
For Putin the options are clear. He wants a pro-Moscow regime to come to power in Kiev in the next election. He will continue to intimidate and coerce Ukrainians to turn towards Moscow. His objective is to 'Finlandise' Ukraine. He does not need to invade Ukraine. He can sit and wait.
Interestingly, when Russia occupied parts of Georgia in 2008 President George Bush threatened all kinds of actions against Moscow, but actually did nothing. It took some time for the Georgians to realise that they were on their own - it was their war against the Russian tanks. Georgia is now in good terms with Moscow. In this case also, despite all the hue and cry, the West has grudgingly accepted the annexation of Crimea by Moscow. Now the tug of war is over Ukraine. The good thing is that, despite all the tensions, John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov are talking to each other.
Relations between Washington and Moscow began sliding after Putin became president for the third time in 2012. The Edward Snowden affair (June 2013) was the beginning of a rapid deterioration of relations - followed by the Syrian chemical weapons controversy (October 2013). What is noteworthy is the sordid role being played by the western media, which constantly demonise Putin.
Ukraine today is a deeply divided nation and both the West and the East are trying to take advantage. Whatever happens until the election date it is the Ukrainians who will have to fend for themselves. They have to choose whether they will be pro-West or pro-Moscow. The Geneva understanding is in tatters and Ukraine is indeed caught in a new Cold War.
The writer is former Ambassador and Secretary.