The country will not get over the prevailing economic concerns unless a participatory political and electoral environment returns, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said yesterday.

Some recent non-economic concerns like security of assets and personal lives have further shaken investors' confidence, which prompted them to shelve their fresh investment and business expansion plans, the think-tank said at a media briefing on its budget recommendations for fiscal 2014-15 at Brae Centre Inn in the capital. The observations were made on the basis of an analysis of the economic indicators that had been found to be on a declining trend after the January 5 election.

"Concerns over the economy will not go unless the country sees return of participator}' political and electoral process," Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of CPD, told reporters.

These concerns will have a negative impact on domestic savings and encourage capital flight out of the country, thus creating fund shortage for the upcoming budget.

The economy did not turn around after the national election, Debapriya said. The growth in revenue income, exports, private credit, remittances and foreign aid are all on a declining trend. Import of capital machinery, which increased for some time, has now gone into negative territory, he added.

Economic growth will slow for the third consecutive year. Surprisingly, private investment, which is the engine of Bangladesh's consistent growth, declined by 1 percentage point this year, Debapriya said.

Only some productions that were disrupted by last year's political turmoil have resumed after the election, he added.

Fahmida Khatun, research director of CPD, presented a paper on the over-all economy at the programme addressed by Prof Mustafizur Rahman, executive director of CPD.

"Investors are yet to regain their confidence and so the country has been facing some sort of stagnation of investments," Prof Mustafizsaid.

Against the backdrop of the present economic and political condition, CPD placed its budget proposals for fiscal 2014-15, focusing on five key issues - assessment of macroeconomic developments in the outgoing year and recommendations for the upcom-

ing year, reviewing the investment situation and proposals, fiscal budget-ary recommendations relating to rural economy, social protection and noneconomic issues.

On the macroeconomic trends, the think-tank said the looming uncertainties afflicting business and investment outlook had continued to persist with adverse implications for major indicators.

During the third quarter of the present fiscal year, export grew by only 3.9 percent, while the three quarters' average growth rate is 12 percent.

Similarly, revenue and remittance have also witnessed a slowdown in growth in recent months. Private sector credit growth went down to just 10.7 percent in February and capital machinery import was negative by 1.4 percent between January and February.

Implementation rate of the annual development programme during the third quarter was lower than that of the

same period in the previous year.

On the financing of the budget, GPD observed that the government had continued to rely on domestic sources. National savings instruments have helped a lot in this regard, it said, adding the stagnant investment situation forced people to invest in savings certificates.

It is anticipated that the national budget for FY 15 will face a daunting task of adding momentum to the country's economy, CPD said. Fiscal management will also be a very difficult task for the government, it said.

The think-tank, however, said inflation remained close to the target and balance of payments was in a comfort zone. The fiscal deficit will also remain within the target.

Responding to a query, Debapriya said CPD always opposed amnesty on black money.

"Allowing black money hurts the honest taxpayers."