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Unfinished business

Salman Haidar
AS the election moves into high gear, foreign affairs remain no more than a distant concern of aspirants to office. In the earlier phases of the campaign the subject barely figured in the electoral discourse, and though the pace has picked up since then, nobody seems to have made a pitch on foreign policy as the key to voter appeal. The few references on the subject that have caught attention, including a mention or two of the neighbours, look more like an overspill of local issues and attitudes rather than an attempt to bring foreign affairs into electoral contention. There seems to be no prominent external issue that could divert attention from the familiar domestic themes that have become the testing ground between the political opponents, and the main contenders have not plunged into question of foreign policy, either in their manifestos or in their campaigning. No radical policy changes in this field thus appear to be in the offing.
Foreign Offices tend to be averse to sudden change, especially where populist sentiment has been invoked, so New Delhi's professional foreign policy establishment may well be taking comfort from being more or less bypassed by the current electoral clamour. It can be claimed on their behalf that keeping away from the limelight could be a sign of good management, in that no fresh external threats have been permitted to develop and no demand for revised ways of doing business has been raised. Yet no matter who gains at the polls, there will be change at MEA and a new ministerial team will shortly be installed in South Block. They may well find that there is a good deal of unfinished business to be dealt with, some of it harking back to the decisions of the outgoing team.
Consider for example the Indo-US nuclear deal, which can be regarded as the crowning achievement of the UPA foreign policy over the last decade. The deal was expected to usher in a new era in which India, rid of sanctions on its nuclear programme, would play its proper part as an equal in the global conclaves on civilian nuclear issues; it would purchase nuclear power technology from the best global providers, which had been earlier debarred, there would be a spurt in India's civilian nuclear power programme and abundant clean energy for economic development would become available. These beneficial possibilities remain but expectations of rapid growth in nuclear power have not been fulfilled. Slowing down has come as a result of the strong dose of caution injected by India's Parliament, to ensure that in the event of an industrial accident provision should be made to establish how far the supplier was responsible and to ensure due compensation to the victims. As yet, it has not been possible to come to terms with potential suppliers, with the result that little progress has been possible. It will be a challenge to the new government to find a way out of the current impasse and to obtain the anticipated benefits from the nuclear deal. Maybe the new incumbents will be able to have a fresh look at the issues and seek a way forward.
A not unrelated issue is that of nuclear security. Last month, the Netherlands hosted a conference on this theme, the latest in a series of UN-sponsored meetings. India participated, as did other declared and undeclared nuclear powers, and the conference was able to measure some progress in accounting for stocks of nuclear materials - nothing dramatic but a few incremental steps. This also proved to be an occasion when the demand for Pakistan to receive equal treatment with India came under discussion once again. The India-US deal has always galled Islamabad which regards it as discriminatory against itself; backed by Ghina, it has demanded equal treatment with India and has been aggrieved not to receive it. Internal uncertainties in that country and the daily count of death and destruction that betoken a state barely able to maintain necessary security at home have only reinforced international resolve to maintain nuclear controls as they exist, to the considerable chagrin of Islamabad. The latest attempt has succeeded no better than earlier ones but it has served to identify another thorny issue that will doubtless come up before long for discussion in international forums.
A near-miss by the LIPA was the ultimately infructuous backchannel negotiation between Dr. Manmohan Singh and Gen. Musharraf on Kashmir. This is still something that remains only partly known, and that too more through deliberate leaks than through official statements, but the picture that emerges is that the two sides had come within a whisker of a mutually acceptable settlement on Kashmir. Having come so close, however, they were unable to take the final step. The reasons are not clear: some in Pakistan were of the view that Dr. Singh had ultimately drawn back, though it became obvious that internal issues in Pakistan progressively deprived Gen. Musharraf of authority, of position, and eventually even of liberty, so he was in no position to conclude the arrangement. Whatever may have been the conflicting dynamics of the situation, it was a tantalisngly close approach to something that could have placed relations between the two conflicting neighbours on an altogether different basis. Subsequently, India kept encouraging the successor regime in Islamabad not to let the matter lapse and to be prepared to take it up afresh. More recently, both sides have tried to re-activate the backchannel, but circumstances have not permitted much to be done. Yet this should be seen as an important piece of unfinished business on the foreign policy agenda of the new incumbents in New Delhi . After the recent change-over in Pakistan, and with the impending one in India, it cannot just be a matter of trying to resume talks from where they had reached with Dr. Singh and Gen. Musharraf but if the earlier interlocutors were able to draw close, so too can their successors. And there is no bigger prize than to succeed in this endeavour.
The matters mentioned here may not be immediately central or urgent for the new government in New Delhi. But these are the sort of far-reaching matters that will challenge any new administration, irrespective of its political hue or inclination. India needs to put fresh dynamism in its relations with major countries abroad, especially the USA, and it needs to work for a tranquil neighbourhood as a step towards achieving its international goals. This is the major part of the unfinished business that will have to be taken in hand by whoever comes to govern the country.
The writer is India's former Foreign Secretary.