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ADB prunes growth forecast

Economic growth to slow to 5.6pc this fiscal year but may rebound next year: report

Star Business Report
The Asian Development Bank has further lowered the growth outlook for the fiscal year, due to declining remittances and export growth and the political turmoil in the first half of the year.
It now expects economic growth to be 5.6 percent, down from 5.8 percent it had predicted earlier in October last year.
ADB's latest forecast is way below the government's projection of 6.3 percent but in line with the other two development partners: the World Bank projected GDP growth to be 5.7 percent and the International Monetary fund 5.5 percent.
"Last fiscal year was relatively a stable year and the country achieved slightly over 6 percent growth rate. In 2013, tension was there and economic activities were disrupted," Mohammad Zahid Hossain, principal economist of ADB's Dhaka office, said while explaining the lower projection.
The regional development bank, however, expects growth to rebound to 6.2 percent in fiscal 2014-15, aided by higher remittance and export growth, as well as recovery in the US and the Eurozone.
Hossain said the country can grow at 7 percent or more if it gets a major thrust in investment, which has remained virtually stagnant at around 25 percent of GDP over the past several years. It needs to be raised to the 32-33 percent range.
At present, the actual output closely follows the track of potential output, which suggests that little scope exists for raising GDP growth without stoking inflation, unless potential GDP is bolstered through higher investment, ADB said in its latest development outlook, which was released yesterday.
On the sectoral analysis, the ADB said agriculture growth will rebound to 3 percent in fiscal 2013-14 from 2.2 percent in the previous year.
Industrial growth will slow to 8 percent this year from 9 percent a year ago because of the output lost to political unrest. It is, however, expected to rise 9 percent next year driven by external and internal demand.
The sendees sector will also witness a down-
trend—5.4 percent against 5.7 percent in fiscal 2012-13—due to pre-election unrest and slower industrial activities.
The ADB outlook report also forecast inflation to rise to 7.5 percent this year from 6.8
percent in the previous year because of supply disruptions and rising wages in public and private sectors. It said inflation is expected to moderate to 6.5 percent next fiscal year.
On the external front, the report said export growth is likely to slow to 9 percent from 10.7 percent a year ago. While garment exports rose 16.7 percent in the first eight months, it is expected to slow down for the rest of the year.
Overall, export growth will bounce back to 12 percent next year on the back of stronger demand.
Inflow of remittances has also declined by nearly 7 percent in the first eight months, mainly due to reduced employment for Bangladeshis in overseas markets.
Although import payments rose nearly 14 percent in the first half, the full year growth would be 10 percent.
The GDP grew by 6 percent in fiscal 2012-13, 6.2 percent in fiscal 2011-12 and 6.7 percent in