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Underlying messages of UZ polls

Shakhawat Liton
IN their electioneering many grassroots level leaders of ruling Awami League are telling voters that the AL is in power and the upazilas will see more developments if the AL-backed candidates are elected chairmen and vice-chairmen to the upazila parishads. According to them, development will be hampered if candidates backed by BNP and other parties get elected in the upazila polls. In support they are portraying the development activities of the AL-led government over the past five years in different sectors including communications, educations and health.
The ruling AL grassroots' strategy is significant. Their views cannot be ignored. People also believe it in the light of their past experiences. This, however, exposes the perverted political culture in our country. This also validates the argument that the local government bodies are yet to be built as institutions. And their fate still depends on the whims of the party in power. The constitutional provision and laws enacted in the light of the constitutional provision cannot ensure a smooth growth of the local government bodies.
Whether or not the people believe in what the AL grassroots leaders are telling them about the local developments will be clear after the elections to the upazila parishads are over. But the elections to 97 upazila parishads held in the first phase on February 19 suggest people are not caring much about the assurances of local developments, at least that is what the first phase results tell us. In the battle of ballots, the BNP backed candidates performed well in all the posts. Of the 97 chairman posts, the BNP-supported candidates won 41, the AL 34 and Jamat 12. The BNP-blessed candidates won 72 of 192 vice-chairman posts, including those reserved for women. The AL-backed contender secured 63 vice-chairman posts and those supported by the Jamaat, a key component in the BNP-led alliance, won 30 vice-chairman posts. BNP supported aspirants won all three posts of chairman and vice-chairman in 11 upazilas, while those with AL support emerged victorious in 10 and Jamaat men in three upazilas. BNP and Jamaat men together won all three posts in another 12 upazilas.
The outcomes of the first phase battles of ballots have made the AL policymakers worried. They want to fight back in the next phases, particularly in the second phase polls to 117 upazila parishads slated for February 27. If they are able to accomplish their mission and emerge victorious, then it will be good for them. The ruling AL, that has been mired in controversy for holding the one-sided voter-less January 5 parliamentary election, will be able to claim that they have people's support. A whopping win for the ruling party however may be dangerous for the country's democracy as it might make the government and the ruling AL more desperate in the coming days. And if they fail to win the battle of the ballots, that will be a blow to the ruling AL and the newly formed government. Their defeat will be portrayed as the decline of their popularity. And the BNP will claim an increase in public support and they may make efforts to use the win to gear up anti-government agitations. All these impacts are related to the national level politics.
For the upazila parishad, there is a strong apprehension about its future. Will the AL-led government go for strengthening the upazila parishads if the BNP-backed candidates win the majority posts in the upazilas? The AL-led government did not make the upazila parishads functional in the past five years despite the party winning majority of the posts in the January 2009 upazila polls.
The AL is well aware that empowerment of upazila parishads dominated by the BNP backed chairmen will contribute largely to boosting up grassroots level units of BNP. Effective functions of parishads will drum up people's support for the chairmen belonging to the local BNP. Before the polls, some government policymakers spoke in favour of strengthening the upazila parishads this time. But will it do so if the BNP backed candidates win the majority of the posts in more than 480 upazila parishads?
The confrontational culture in politics does not encourage us to be optimistic. Take the example of the mayors of the four city corporations-Rajshahi, Khulna, Sylhet and Barisal. Four BNP backed candidates won the mayoral posts in the elections held in the middle of last year defeating their rivals supported by the ruling AL. Before the BNP leaders were elected as mayors, ruling AL leaders were mayors of the four city corporations and all of them had enjoyed status of state ministers. But the government did not give the status of state ministers to the four mayors elected in the middle of last year as they belonged to the BNP. There is no legal provision for giving such status. The governments in the past gave the mayors the status by issuing circulars. Considering the fate of four city corporation mayors, one can well assume what will be the fate of upazila parishad chairmen if they are affiliated with the BNP.
In the view of many political analysts, the outcomes of the ongoing upazila elections will determine the government's next course of actions regarding the long overdue elections to the zila parishads and two Dhaka City Corporations. If the government party fails to win the battle of ballots in the upazila parishads, then the fate of the elections to zila parishads and two DCCs will remain uncertain for indefinite period. This will be a severe blow to the country's local government system. But it does not matter to the ruling party. The ruling AL men who were appointed in December 2011 as administrators of the zila parishads are running the zila parishads. Not holding elections will prolong their term as zila parishad administrators. And not holding elections to DCCs means the government will keep appointing new administrators after every six months to run the DCCs. If so, narrow interests of partisan politics prevailing over the local government system will dominate the future of local government bodies including upazila parishads.
The writer is Senior Reporter, The Dally Star.