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Revised GDP target yet to be fixed

REJAUL KARIM BYRON
A revised GDP growth target could not be fixed at yesterday's meeting of the fiscal coordination council due to diverging forecasts of the members.
"There was a difference of opinion - we will have to sit over it again," Finance Minister AMA Muhith, who chaired the meeting, told reporters afterwards.
"However, I have said before that the growth will not be below 6.3 percent," he added.
In the meeting, the finance division proposed revising down fiscal 2013-14's GDP growth target to 6.5 percent from 7.2 percent, which the General Economic Division of the planning ministry was in favour of as well.
But Bangladesh Bank proposed setting the growth target between 5.8 and 6.1 percent, which the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) supported.
The rationale behind the finance division's figure of 6.5 percent being that exports will grow 15 percent and remittance at least three percent.
The commerce ministry, BB and BBS, however, did not agree with the finance ministry's estimate, officials present at the meeting said.Remittance growth in the current fiscal year would in "no way be positive"; rather it will decline, the central bank officials said at the meeting. Besides, the service sector, which contributes 50 percent to the GDP, was badly affected by the political unrest, weighing down the growth prospects.
If the GDP grows by 6.1 percent in fiscal 2013-14, it would be extraordinary given the country's present context and world situation, they added.
BBS official also supported the BB estimate and said the manufacturing and poultry sectors were affected by the political turmoil. As a result, a GDP growth target of 6.5 percent GDP would be too ambitious.
The commerce ministry said banking on a 15 percent export growth would be "too risky”, while proposing a target of 12 percent.
Also at the meeting, the revised budget for the fiscal year was discussed, where it was proposed slashing it by more than 5 percent to Tk 2,11,222 crore.
The finance division said the revenue budget would remain unchanged, but proposed cutting the Annual Development Programme by Tk 10,870 crore from Tk 65,872 crore on grounds that the bridge division would not be able to spend the allocation for Padma Bridge.
Some Tk 6,852 core was allocated for Padma Bridge, but onlyTk 210 crore was spent until December.
The finance division said a big share of the allocated amount would not be spent, but the planning ministry did not support the proposal for slashing the revised ADP.The total revenue target for fisal 2013-14 is Tk 1,67,459 crore, but the National Board of Revenue called for bringing down the target to Tk 1,50,000 crore.