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Duel for power threatens
of a risky attempt at one-party rule.
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia gambled by boycotting the elections and by relying on violent street agitation to advance her agenda. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina gambled by holding an election that excluded the major opposition party, betting that the international condemnation wouldn't be harsh enough to force her to back down and hold a new vote, as most Western governments are urging.
"It seems now that Mrs. Hasina's bet paid off. No one is talking seriously about new elections in the near future. But in a country with a tradition of stormy protest, few observers expect the new arrangement to be a stable one, especially if Mrs. Zia sees continued strikes as her only defence. Neither woman is ready to back down, and, in their elegant homes, both seem oddly cut off from the turmoil outside," it says.
The two women have barely ever met in person, and when they try to conduct state business, rage over the past leaps up to blind them. In 2007, Bangladeshi generals grew so frustrated by the friction that they jailed both women on corruption charges, a plan that was known as the "minus two solution."
But within two years the two were out, greeted by cheering crowds.
"That was really naive, because the fact of the matter is that these are the two most popular leaders in the country, and there is no space for anyone else," a Western diplomat told the LIS daily on the condition of anonymity. "These parties and the leaders know how to deal with each other. They've been doing so for 22 years."
This turned out to be the year they could not. One can speculate on the reasons. Both women are in their late 60s and hoping to ensure succession, probably to their sons. Political violence has been at an incendiary level all year because the government began a campaign to root out Islamists from politics. Because Khaleda formed an election-time alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamic party, government hard-liners began to describe her as a supporter of militants.
Bangladesh's Information Minister Hasanul Haq Inu said there were debates in government circles about whether Khaleda Zia should be excluded from politics. "They say it is too risky," he said. "I say Bangladesh will be risky with her."
Against that backdrop, the two women entered negotiations to organise elections. It is a contorted, idiosyncratic process in Bangladesh, and in the past it was managed through the creation of a neutral "caretaker government" to guard against vote-rigging. Hasina scrapped that system. Khaleda prides herself on her ability to take unbending, principled stands, and she decided to take one here.
Though her party, the BNP, still had a chance of winning, she declared a boycott. When it became clear her rival would hold elections anyway, Khaleda called strikes that paralysed roads and highways. Protesters torched trucks and buses, in some cases with passengers aboard; vote-related deaths climbed to 100. On Election Day, Khaleda's supporters were under orders to discourage voting.
Turnout for Sunday's election was indeed low, and the next day's newspapers described ballotstuffing by pro-government activists that nudged the figure to almost 40 percent. Western governments were severely critical, and both the US and Canada called for a new election. Khaleda was delighted. During an interview, she held up a newspaper with a photograph of an empty polling station, remarking, "There isn't anybody, only doggies."
Across town, however, Sheikh Hasina jovially brushed off questions about whether her win was tainted by fraud.
"With the swearing in of a new Parliament that does not include the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Mrs. Hasina will effectively introduce one-party rule in Bangladesh, and Mrs. Zia will lose the trappings of power she has enjoyed for two decades. Vicious outbreaks of opposition violence are being reported, and the government, too, has taken a hard line, arresting top leaders of the party and charging thousands of people with taking part in election-related violence," says the write-up.
A close aide to the PM, Gowher Rizvi, told the US daily that he was sure new elections would be held, but he was vague about the timetable. In the interim, he expects a new opposition coalition to take shape to fill the vacuum, attracting breakaway factions from the BNP. He noted, almost in passing, that the disruption might make it impossible for Khaleda to pass power to her son.
"Two things are absolutely sure," he said. "The elections will happen, and the BNP will be there. With or without Khaleda Zia."