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SUNDAY POUCH

'Election' today: Challenges and opportunities tomorrow!

The challenges must not overwhelm us. Bangladesh is a land of tremendous possibilities. Let us all join together to push ourselves out of the present political quagmire.

ASHFAQUR Rahman
THE critcised 'election' to the 10'h National Assembly is upon us today. The voter turnout is expected to be low. This is because the ruling Awami League is facing several obstacles in getting voters to go the booths. There is also the ongoing blockade (oborodh) of BNP. On top of this, a countrywide 48 hour hartal has been imposed from yesterday morning by BNP and other opposition parties.
With 153 seats already
declared elected unopposed, the electorate is unenthusias-tic to participate in a one-sided poll with BNP not in the field. BNP has however instructed its field level workers to form grassroots committee to resist the elections and to see that the voters are unable to cast their ballot. Although the security agencies including the army will help to ensure security of the voters, yet the number of voters is likely to be few.
But then, even with low turnout, the candidates contesting will be elected to the remaining 147 seats. So what happens to the country's politics from tomorrow? The opposition parties including BNP will not be accepting the results. Political pundits are telling us that, as a result, there would be a long period of political instability and uninterrupted violence.
The members of Awami League and the parties in
alliance will not be wasting any time to be sworn in as soon the Election Commission publishes their names in an official gazette. Soon thereafter the prime minister will appoint her cabinet. Those members who were elected from other parties but are not included in the government would form the 'loyal' opposition in parliament.
Awami League should be ready to face serious challenges from the first day. The international community will not be ready to accept this government easily. Due to nonparticipation of BNP, which is a major party, no country or international organisation other than India and Bhutan has sent observers. They are, therefore, not ready to recognise the government that was in a way 'still born.'
There are strong possibilities that Bangladesh could face boycott of events hosted by it. However, at this early stage it is a far cry. All will depend on how successful BNP is in carrying out anti-Awami League propaganda abroad. Bangladesh could face some trade and investment related disadvantages in the international arena. This could also include denial of jobs to expatriate Bangladeshi workers, leading to a reduction in overall remittance figures. It could reduce our economic growth and thereby also circumscribe the economic growth ambitions as laid down in the Awami League election manifesto. Perhaps India is one country, due to its public support for AL, that would consider cooperating with this government economically. But India accounts for only $5 billion of Bangladesh's $28 billion exports. It would in fact give active support to AL to ensure international acceptability of today's 'election.'
The challenges mentioned so far would put extreme pressure on the smooth functioning of the government. In short, it would be prudent for the new government to find ways and means to normalise diplomatic and international economic relations by making substantive political concessions to BNP.
A wise option for it would be to consider holding midterm election with participation of BNP and other political parties for the 11th National Assembly. That would necessarily mean starting a political dialogue with BNP without any conditions. Al should not contemplate trying to divide BNP by bringing some elements within its fold. It tried before the 10th National Assembly but failed. The dialogue should aim at having BNP with its alliance participate in any future elections based on a formula that could help establish a level playing field for all parties. This is perhaps the best option left for AL to redeem its reputation as a democratic party with a 60 year or more history.
Let us not forget that the United Nations had been actively urging AL as well as BNP to talk and reconcile their positions in order for both the parties to participate in the 10th National Assembly elections. Since it failed at that time, it would be critical to help the UN succeed in its efforts for the 11th National Assembly election. That would make our people
happy no doubt.
On the domestic front, the challenges facing the AL government that will be taking oath after the elections to the 10th Assembly are many. So also are the opportunities. First, AL has to take steps to clear up the political atmosphere at the earliest. All political prisoners must be released without conditions. Not only BNP but also Jamaat activists could be released for the purpose of political dialogue. Those who were arrested for maiming and killing people, and for arson, need to be charged, tried and punished. Police officers and law enforcers who acted beyond their writ must also be taken into account.
If there is a sincere wish on the part of the new AL government to start reconciliation, it is likely to get support from all quarters. The people of the country today stand divided. National reconciliation is needed. Policies must be put in place that encourages all parties to work together to see a fair election take place in the near future.
Today's 'election' is therefore a stopgap arrangement for AL to fulfill what it calls a 'constitutional requirement.' But once done there should be no looking back. The challenges must not overwhelm us. Bangladesh is a land of tremendous- -possibilities-.- -Let- -us -ail-join--together- to -push ourselves out of the present political quagmire.