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Political Unrest

ADP implementation rate likely to go down this fiscal Fears leading economist

UNB, Dhaka
Although the implementation rate of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) hit 96 percent in the last fiscal year 2012-13, its progress in this fiscal is likely to suffer a major setback due to the ongoing political unrest and violence, said a leading economist.
Dr Mustafa K Mujeri noted that there was marked improvement in the last fiscal year in the ADP implementation progress compared to the previous few fiscals. "But, under the present political circumstances, implementation is being hampered in various sectors, especially at the field level, for which the country is likely to witness lower implementation rate in the last five months of the ongoing fiscal."
According to sources at the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED), the implementation progress is likely to witness lower rate during the July-November period of the current fiscal compared to the same period of the last fiscal although the official data is yet to be revealed.
The implementation progress except the self-financed projects in the first four months (July-October) of the current fiscal (2013-14) stood at 15 percent compared to 20 percent during the same period of the preceding fiscal.
Saying that a congenial atmosphere is not prevailing in the country to reach the desired level of expenditure in the infrastructural sector, Dr Mujeri, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), observed that
FROM PAGE 5 the country would have to wait and see how it could overcome the present unrest and recoup the losses in the economic and social sectors.
Asked about the prospective implementation rate this year, he said, "It's very difficult at the present moment to predict. If there's improvement in the present political unrest, then it would be possible to overcome the situation in the later half of the ongoing fiscal year with prudent government efforts. “
Mentioning that the overall economic activities as well as the revenue earnings are being hampered under the present circumstances, Dr Mujeri said the government would have to take rational steps to revise the current ADP in a bid to have a prudent ADP size considering the practical situation.
Asked how much he was optimistic about the improvement in the current
political situation, he said, “It's questionable to what extent it is possible to become optimistic. We have to wait and see how much improvement there is in the political situation in the upcoming months and to what extent we would be able to recoup the losses and deficiencies. The implementation rate of ADP is likely to suffer after October."
Voicing his concern that the country's economy is not advancing at its normal pace, he said the economy should be rescued from this political unrest.
"The major political parties should come to an acceptable solution. Otherwise, as long the unrest persists, the implementation progress of the ADP would be hampered...the major precondition for restoring much more normalcy in the economic activities is an acceptable solution to the current political situation."
According to IMED, the ADP expenditure during this July-October period of the current fiscal excluding the self-financed projects was Tk 9,906 crore compared to Tk 10,920 crore during the corresponding period of the 2012-13 fiscal. The ADP size without the self-financed projects in the current fiscal (FY14) isTk 65,872 crore.
In case of the self-financed projects, the implementation rate hit 6 percent with Tk 461 crore spent during the July-October ofFY14.
The RADP implementation rate of the last fiscal year (2012-13) except the selffinanced projects reached 96 percent as the expenditure totalled Tk 50,026 crore out of the overall ADP allocation ofTk 57,388 crore.
The RADP implementation rate in the 2011-12 fiscal reached 93 percent. In 2010-11 fiscal, it reached 92 percent, up from 91 percent notched in 2009-10 fiscal year.