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Economy to come under strain if ELI scraps GSP
FROM PAGE B1
The IMF made die overall analysis on die country while releasing its fourth instalment of $1 billion in budgetary' support for Bangladesh on Friday.
The IMF said Bangladesh's GDP growth could decline by up to 1.80 percentage points in die first year after the GSP is wididrawn, as activity would severely be affected in the garment sector.
The loss in the real economic growth will comedown to 0.6 percentage point in the second year of die shock.
Exports of goods in terms of GDP will decline 2.2 percentage points in the first year, 2.1 points in die second year and 2.2 percentage points within three to five years in the event of cancellation of the GSP.
The current account balance will also be hit: going down by 1.1 percentage points in terms of GDP in the first two years each and 1 percen tage p oint wit bin di ree to fve years.
The IMF said the attendant loss of income from the export sector is also expected to curb private consumption and private investment.
At present, Bangladesh enjoys duty-free and quota-free access to the Ell under die " Every t h i ng bu t A rm s" s ch e m e.
The country's garment sector accounts for 80 percent of total exports and direcdy employs about four million workers, mainly rural women. Its annual exports to the EH stand at around $14 billion.
But after the industrial disasters of Tazreen fire and Rana Plaza building collapse, the country's claims to such benefits have become delicate.
The Ell has already made it clear that Bangladesh cannot take the trade preferences for granted and could face trade measures, as has been done by the I IS.
The I IS in June cancelled its GSP for
Bangladesh due to a lack of progress in strengthening labour standards and worker safety conditions.
The impact of die withdrawal of die GSP will, however, be short-term and the country's economy will be able to absorb die loss in the economic growth within diree to five years, the IMF said. The export growth will recover as Bangladesh maintains significant cost advantages, the lender added.
Under this scenario, Bangladesh's external debt distress rating remains unchanged as a low risk country, die IMF said.
The rule change in EH’s GSP in 2011 favoured Bangladesh, which is said to have helped increase the country's share in the bloc's garment imports by 2.5 percentage po i n ts b y 2012-2013.
The analysis, however, acknowledged the recent developments in the country's garment sector, aimed at strengthening working conditions.
Among the measures, the government recently revised the minimum wage for garment workers, raising die salaries by 77 percent to Tk 5,300. The labour laws have been amended to improve safety standards and workers' collective bargaining rights.
With support from the International Labour Organisation, development partners and international retailers, the authorities are strengdiening the factory inspection system.
The IMF also said the recent growth slowdown and currency market volatility in India are expected to have relatively modest spillover into Bangladesh in the near term, as the country's export exposure to the larger neighbour is very low and financial linkages are limited.
"Domestic inflation could actually decline as a result of the depreciation of the