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Beware the "Black Swan"

Milia Ali
Recently, a s I was reading an article about President Kennedy, 1 stumbled upon the interesting concept of the "Black Swan" theory, developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his best selling
2007 book The Black Swan. According to Taleb, in the Old World people were convinced that all swans were white. The unexpected sighting of the black swan in Australia not only exposed the fragility of conventional knowledge, but also highlighted the significance of "what we don't know" as compared to "what we do know."
Taleb defines a "Black Swan" as a highly improbable event with three main characteristics. First, it is an outlier, as it is outside the domain of regular expectations and no past experience can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it creates a tremendous impact. Third, after the fact we often rationalise the event with the benefit of hindsight, thus making it seem less random, and more predictable. Although the concept is metaphorical, it can be applied to anything from historical occurrences like the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism to scientific revolutions like the spread of the Internet culture. In fact all events with low predictability and high impact follow the "BlackSwan theory."
The above preamble on the "Black Swan" is not intended to initiate an academic discussion, but to link the concept to events in Bangladesh. In my view, the theory applies to the demise of East Pakistan and the creation of an independent Bangladesh. The Pakistani leadership planned the March '71 crackdown to terrorise the Bengalis into a long period of submission by using fear tactics. However, the strategy unexpectedly boomeranged. Rather than being demoralised, the Bangladeshis revolted, galvanised, and fought a nine-month independence war. In this case the "Black Swan" fractured Pakistan and resulted in the independence of Bangladesh. The Pakistani leadership did not anticipate an outcome diametrically opposite to what they had expected. Hence they were inadequately prepared to deal with the consequences for many years to come.
More than forty years have elapsed since a "Black Swan" came to the rescue of Bangladeshis. Today, the nation is at a critical juncture: political decision makers need to make some hard choices to avert a calamity that could lead the country' down a rocky road filled with unforeseen obstacles. Unfortunately, Bangladesh's leaders are deeply immersed in vendetta and brinkmanship based on their "predictable" assumption that politics is a zero sum game, where one party's loss will naturally lead to the triumph of the other. However, this may not turn out to be the case. What if the ongoing violence spirals out of control, plunging the country' into an unexpected catastrophe? The impossible may then become a possibility. For example, it could unleash a right wing dictatorial takeover or an extreme left uprising or even a religious movement reversing the country's progress. Is Bangladesh
prepared to face the consequences of such an extreme occurrence?
There are still options for resolving the current gridlock. The ruling party, Awami League, needs to address the core issue of the caretaker/interim government more firmly, rather than bask in the hope that arresting a few opposition leaders will end the crisis. And the opposition (BNP -Jamat) cannot continue with their confrontational politics of destruction which they believe will paralyse the nation into terrorised submission. Needless to say, the latter strategy is causing irreparable damage to the country', its psyche and, most of all, its future prospects.
May be it's time for the leaders to give themselves a reality check. If only they would realise that a cataclysmic event is no longer a remote possibility but a high probability, they might be more inclined to revise their strategy and find an exit ramp before it's too late!
Like most other columnists, I implore the antagonists to talk to each other rationally with the aim of reaching a middle ground. It's highly likely that the advisors of the political leadership are assuring them that their confrontational approach will yield desired results. I would say to them: "Please don't heed such irrational advice. Take a step back and imagine the worst that could happen—a "Black Swan" scenario. Pre-empt the catastrophe and stop it from happening. Because if it does happen, posterity will hold you responsible for destroying the nation. A nation built on the sweat and blood of those who sacrificed their lives so that future generations could live in the comfort zone of secularism, democracy and economic stabil-ity!