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Political risks loom over economy: IMF

Star Business Report
Strikes and uncertainty associated with the upcoming national election and an "attendant" slowdown in economic growth are challenges ahead for Bangladesh, the International Monetary Fund said in a statement on Sunday.
The expected transition in the garment sector and upgraded labour and safety standards are other serious challenges to the country this fiscal year, the IMF said.
"To manage them, it is important to persevere with a strong policy framework in the run-up to national elections and beyond," Naoyuki Shinohara, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said, after the IMF Board on November 27 approved the fourth installment of around $140.4 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) loan for Bangladesh.
Shinohara, who is also the acting chair of the IMF board, said the progress on macro-stabilisation and structural reforms has been strong under Bangladesh's policy programme, supported by the ECF.
International reserves have risen and underlying inflation is moderating, while progress has also been made in lowering subsidies, raising development spending, improving public financial and debt management and strengthening financial supervision.
Going forward, he said the fiscal policy should remain prudent, while providing space to raise public investment and social-related spending.
Further reforms to modernise the tax system and generate additional resources for development spending over the medium-term are "critical", with implementation of the new value-added tax a "priority"
Public financial management needs strengthening, focused on treasury cash management, state-owned enterprise financial reporting and debt management practices, he said.
Restrained monetary policy has curbed inflationary pressures and supported reserve accumulation. The stronger external position, Shinohara thinks, could allow scaling back foreign exchange intervention while continuing sterilisation efforts.
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Bangladesh Bank should fully utilise its enhanced supervisory powers to bolster financial stability, while calling for reform programmes at the state-owned commercial banks to be firmly advanced and backed by recapitalisation.
Reforms to achieve sustained and inclusive growth should aim at further removing critical infrastructure bottlenecks, while streamlining the trade regime and foreign exchange regulations to improve the business climate.
Advancing initiatives to strengthen labour and garment factory safety conditions is also critical, while the targeting of social safety net programmes needs to be further improved, the IMF deputy managing director said.