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Nepal elections: Maoists routed

Mahmood Hasan
NEPAL went to elections on November 19 to constitute a new Constituent Assembly. The new Himalayan Republic is still not out of constitutional woods. For the past five years politicians have been trying to arrive at a consensus to write a constitution. But the new charter eluded the politicians because of endless bickering.
The Constituent Assembly (CA-I), formed in April 2008 with a 2-year mandate, was dissolved in May 2012. Thus, fresh elections were needed for a new Constituent Assembly. It took 18 months for the politicians to agree to have fresh elections. That election was held amid uncertainty and fear of violence. However, election day passed of rather quietly, though there were some incidences of disorder.
Nepal has a population of 31 million people. More than 70% of the total 12.21 million voters went to the polling booths to cast their verdict. Interestingly, in 2008 the number of voters was 17.5 million. The Constituent Assembly will have 601 members. The composition is a complex mix of "first past the post" (FPTP, 240 seats), "proportional representation" (PR, 335 seats) and 26 nominated members.
What has surprised political observers is the decisive rejection of Unified Communist Party of Nepal (UCPN-Maoists) by voters. The Maoists are led by Pushpa Kumar Dahal (58, known as Prachanda). Maoist insurgency, which cost more than 12,000 lives, ended in 2006 under Indian mediation and led to the adoption of the "Comprehensive Peace Agreement." Subsequently, the 2008 multiparty elections set up the
Constituent Assembly.
Between 2008 and 2012,
CA-I was extended twice, but it failed to deliver the new charter. Politicians wrangled over the form of government -- parliamentary or presidential; number of provinces and the structure of administration - federal or unitary; rights of citizens; formation of cabinet; electoral system; and power of the House. In the midst of political bickering five prime ministers came and left -each ousted by conspiracies hatched by those not in power.
At the 2008 election, Prachanda's UCPN secured 229 seats -failing to get the magic majority figure of 301 seats. He was at the height of popularity and emerged as the "fierce," as his name Prachanda suggests. Nepal's oldest party, Nepali Congress (centre-right, NC) got 115 seats, Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist-Leninist (centre-left party known as UML) mustered 108 seats and Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum (MJAF) got 54 seats. The remaining 69 seats went to smaller parties.
Complete results of the November 19 elections have not yet been announced. But according to FPTP results the Maoists have suffered a serious blow. Their tally has come down to 26 seats. On the other hand, NC has secured 105 seats, UML got 91 and MJAF got 4 seats.
What was shocking to Prachanda was his defeat in Kathmandu to little known Rajan K.C., a NC, candidate by a margin of 8,000 votes. Prachanda, a former prime minister, losing in the capital has lots of political significance. However, Prachanda has won the Siraha-5 constituency, a district bordering India. Rajan K.C. brought out a procession to celebrate the downfall ofUCPN-Maoist in Kathmandu.
When vote counting began and showed that UCPN-Maoist was trailing behind in many constituencies Prachanda reacted angrily and demanded that counting be stopped and blamed "national and international conspiracy" for his party's poor showing. Later, he, however, said that he will accept the people's verdict.
Why did the people reject the Maoists? There are several reasons. Firstly, Prachanda's close associate Mohan Baidya split with a sizeable number of Maoist followers, accusing Prachanda of being a traitor for abandoning the "People's War." Baidya campaigned against Prachanda in this election. Secondly, despite being the largest party in CA-I, Maoists failed to get the support of the other major parties to draft the new Constitution. Arrogance, intra-party squabbles for leadership and attempts to undermine the NC and UML in CA-I alienated UCPN-M from the people. Thirdly, lavish lifestyle and allegations of widespread corruption and sheltering of war criminals came to haunt UCPN-M. Fourth, Prachanda centralised party powers and excluded names of loyal party cadres who worked against him from the proportional list. Finally, Prachanda failed to explain why he wanted Nepal divided into 13 states. NC and UML opposed Prachanda's move fearing that dividing the country into separate states would unleash ethnic tensions.
The election has shown that the caretaker government under Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi has done an excellent job with his cabinet of 11 technocrat ministers. The decision to set up "election-time government" was taken by a High Level Political Committee, which was formed in March 2013 at President Ram Baran Yadav's initiative. The leaders of UCPN-M, NC, UML and MJAF formed a syndicate of four parties to help and guide
the interim government.
The Election Commission also lived up to the expectations of the people in conducting a free and fair election. Former president Jimmy Carter, ELI and other international observers have given full marks to the Chief Election Commissioner Neel Kantha Uprety. The White House also expressed satisfaction with the elections.
India's role in the November 19 election is more than evident. India has given more than 100 vehicles to the Election Commission, and technical support to the voter identity card project. Nepali journalists believe that India had a hand in the UCPN-M debacle. It is not surprising that India, which has a violent Maoist movement, has lost all sympathy for the Nepali Maoists.
From the election results it appears that Prachanda's clout in CA-I1 will be substantially reduced. Neither the NC nor the UML will give him space for political maneuvering.
Now that the Maoists have been routed, it is most likely that NC Chief Sushil Koirala will lead the next government with the support from Jhala Nath Khanal of UML. The new government will have to move fast to deliver the constitution. People of Nepal have overwhelmingly voted for democracy. They want peace and stability. An unstable Nepal is certainly not in the interest of South Asia.
We in Bangladesh can probably take some lessons from our Northern neighbour. The writer is former ambassador and secretary.