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Worried About Bangladesh

US fears further instability, rise of extremism

Diplomatic Correspondent
Expressing concern over the political crisis in Bangladesh, the US Congress at a hearing yesterday said further instability might lead to the expansion of extremist groups threatening regional security.
The Congress also expressed worry over shutdown, violence, attacks on religious minorities and uncompromising position of the ruling and opposition parties before the upcominggeneral election.
The 90-minute hearing titled "Bangladesh in Turmoil: A Nation on the Brink?" was held at Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, DC, early yesterday.
The Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the LIS House Committee on Foreign Affairs organised the event with I IS Representative Steve Chabot in the chair.
Ed Royce, chairman of the foreign affairs committee; Prof Ali Riaz, public policy scholar at Woodrow Wilson
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International Centre; Major Gen (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman, president of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, and John Sifton, Asia advocacy director of Human Rights Watch, were present as witnesses.
In his opening remark, Steve Chabot, chairman of the subcommittee, said it was uncertain whether or not the BNP would boycott the election.
"During my visit in Bangladesh, I stressed the need for curtailing the growing violence, which can only bring about further instability, possibly leading to expansion of extremists groups," he said.
Referring to his meeting with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on November 6 and opposition leader Khaleda Zia the previous day, he said, "I expressed my views that the national election should be free, fair, transparent and without violence."
But both the leaders were adamant - Hasina insisted the provision is well in place to conduct a fair election while Khaleda maintained a fair election could not be held without a ca reta ke r gove r n m e n t.
Steve, however, highly appreciated Bangladesh's development, saying "Bangladesh story has been an impressive one."
Also in the hearing, Ed Royce said the Bangladesh government was not doing enough to protect minorities. He noted with dismay the violence against the Hindus as well as Christians and others belonging to different religions.
He raised the question whether madrasa education is instigating fundamentalism in Bangladesh like Pakistan. Fundamentalism has created a deep-rooted crisis in Pakistan as authorities failed to nip it in the bud, he observed.
In response, Prof Ali Riazsaid, "I completely agree with you congressman ... these are the issues that we need to address and we urge the international community to work close so that such attacks don't repeat."
On a question, he said he was not hopeful about the holding of participatory polls.
"Given the uncompromising positions of the ruling and opposition parties, I'm not very much optimistic about an inclusive election at this point unless something dramatic happens," added Ali Riaz, also the chair of department of politics and government at Illinois State University.
Referring to Tuesday's meeting between
President Abdul Hamid and Khaleda Zia, he said the president has very limited constitutional powers.
He said it was not very clear how much the president would be able to intervene in this kind of situation. But there's no doubt that the president has moral power.
Ali Riaz noted the constitution requires an election to be held by January 24. "But there is no agreement between the opposition and the ruling parties as to who will oversee the election."
About a possible solution, the political analyst said at least some sort of accommodation of opposition's demand, including a cabinet not headed by the incumbent prime minister, would be an option.
Major Gen (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman said the formation of the "so-called" interim government showed that the PM did not really care about any accommodation needed to solve the problem.
If the PM finds it absolutely difficult to hold a one-party election, she'll probably urge the president to declare emergency' by which she can postpone the election and buy time, he said. "Perhaps she'll come back to election after a year or one and a half years."
The retired army officer also said an uncompromising belligerent state and increased political violence may suck the military into the crisis.
If the military is asked by the incumbent government to act against any popular uprising, it could give rise to the public expectation for rescue from the crisis by the military and "evoke a coup".
In either case, there is likely to be a military-backed interim civilian government to hold fair election. Any prolonged stay of such government beyond six to eight months would be harmful for Bangladesh, he said.
John Sifton in his statement said there was a very real possibility that the BNP and most of its political allies would boycott the elections.
"In boycotting before and after the elections, the BNP and its allies will presumably hold protests - hartals in the Bangladesh vernacular - shutting down transit and economic activity in key urban areas. In response, state security forces will use force of varying types, some of it responsive to events, some of it pro-active," he observed.
The HRW official thinks the prime minister at some point will have to wake up to the reality -- it might not be today, but she will have to realise it eventually.