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Govt sees several risks to economy

Finance ministry says slow remittance, low revenue and dull investment will hamper GDP growth

Rejaul Karim Byron
The finance ministry has identified some risks to the economy - slow remittance inflow, low revenue collection and a dull investment demand -that it said will slow GDP growth in the current fiscal year.
The risks originate from the ongoing political uncertainty and a slow recovery in the global economy, the ministry said.
The ministry prepared a report on the macro-economic situation in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year and the report was placed at a meeting of the fiscal coordination council last week.
The GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate may hover around the average growth in last five years -- about 6.2 percent - against the government's target of 7.2 percent for the current year.
The report prepared by the Finance Division under the ministry said, if the negative inflow of remittances continues, it will put pressure on the balance of payments over which the
government has been in comfort since it assumed power.
Remittances declined by around 8 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to the same period a year ago, according to the report. Manpower export also dropped by about 39 percent during the period when 100,249 people went abroad for jobs against 139,647 in the same period last year.
The report said manpower export to Saudi Arabia and the UAE fell significantly causing the drop in the figures.
The government has signed agreements with Malaysia and Bahrain on manpower export and Hong Kong has expressed its interest to take female workers from Bangladesh.
The report said the ministries concerned should take prompt initiatives to send manpower to the countries as per the agreements. However, a Bangladesh Bank official said work permits of many workers in Saudi Arabia have expired and they had to spend extra amounts on renewing those.
The official said many expatriate Bangladeshis in Saudi Arabia even had to take money from home which had a negative impact on remittance inflow.
However, the finance ministry observes that export performance is still satisfactory but the economic downtrend in Europe and the withdrawal of Bangladesh's Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) by the US may hamper exports.