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Bangladesh Political Stalemate

International concerns

Mahmood Hasan
SCRAPPING of the caretaker government through 15th Amendment of the Constitution compelled the opposition BNP to confront the AL government. AL is firm that the next national election will be held under the incumbent government. The opposition is convinced that elections under the AL government will not be free or fair, and AL's control over the government machinery will ensure its return to power.
The confrontation has taken a violent turn since end of October. Repeated hartals imposed by the opposition have already taken huge toll in terms of human lives and property damage. The stalemate has boiled down to the hardened position of the two leaders - Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia.
Deeply concerned, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon called both the leaders over phone in late August, urging them to hold talks for a peaceful resolution of the political crisis.
What many found unacceptable is that Dhaka-based ambassadors of some countries have been hyperactive, urging the two leaders to come to a consensus over the type of government under which the elections can be held. The High Commissioner of India Pankaj Saran and the Ambassador of United States Dan Mozena are the two most active diplomats in Dhaka nowadays. Ambassadors of European Union, China, Canada and Japan have also joined in to defuse the situation.
India is quite aware that Sheikh Hasina’s 'secular' AL government has become unpopular and BNP may win the next elections. Indian worries primarily revolve around security concerns for its North-Eastern states. India is grateful to AL government for apprehending top ULFA leaders and handing them over to India. Delhi may be concerned that return of 'Islamist' BNP to power may reopen the door to Indian insurgents to use Bangladesh as a springboard.
Khaleda Zia visited Delhi in October 2012 and met all the top Indian leaders, including those of opposition BJP. She firmly assured them that no Indian insurgent would be allowed sanctuary inside Bangladesh. Keeping her promise, Khaleda Zia has not made any anti-India remark or statement over the past year.
Interestingly, The Economic Times carried a PTI report dated 8 November, 2013 that President Obama, after meeting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Washington, had asked his officials to "ramp up consultations" with India on the political crisis in Bangladesh. A close scrutiny of the four documents released by White House Press Office on September 27 on Manmohan's visit has no mention of Bangladesh anywhere. Clearly, a section of Indian media is intentionally misleading readers with cooked up stories.
Indian High Commissioner Pankaj Saran called on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on October 30 to brief her about the Indian position on the elections. The Indian High Commission said in its November 11 statement said: "It is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their own future. India supports holding of free and fair election in Bangladesh." Conspicuously, the phrase "participation of all parties" is missing.
The Americans are deeply worried about the political
violence. Despite repeated calls by the US State Department to the government to "ensure free, fair and credible elections participated by all parties," Dhaka seems to have ignored them. In early September, US Secretary of State John Kerry wrote to both Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia urging them to "hold constructive dialogue and decide on the electiontime government."
Ambassador Dan Mozena went to Delhi on October 23 for discussions with Indian External Affairs. According to media reports his discussion with Indian High Commissioner Pankaj Saran on October 23 revealed some differences on how to get Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia engaged in constructive dialogue.
Indian media reported that Mozena and US Ambassador to India Nancy Powell met with Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh on October 25. Mozena tried to assess India's approach to the current situation in Bangladesh. Three issues apparently came up during discussions - ensuring 'peace and stability' in Bangladesh, the need for 'free and fair election in which all parties participate,' and the need to counter 'extremism and terrorism.' Mozena left for Washington on October 30 for consultations. Clearly, the Americans and the Indians are "not on the same page" on Bangladesh.
On November 5, US Congressman Steve Chabot, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and Pacific, visited Dhaka. Chabot called on Khaleda Zia, Foreign Minister Dipu Moni and, most significantly, Jamaat leader Abdur Razzak. After meeting with Law Minister Shafique Ahmed he said: "I am here as an honest observer. I am going to take back what I see to my colleagues in the US Congress."
As a further follow-up, US Under-Secretary for South and Central Asia, Nisha Desai
Biswal (Indian-American), is expected to come to Bangladesh on November 16 to meet government and opposition leaders. Mozena is also expected to be back in Dhaka by then. One has to wait for the outcome of Biswal's visit.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni left for Delhi on November 10 to attend the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM). According to media reports she is expected to meet top Indian leaders and discuss the current political situation in Bangladesh.
Commonwealth Summit will be held in Colombo from November 15. The Commonwealth has been outspoken about democracy in the member countries. Pakistan, Fiji, Zimbabwe and Nigeria were suspended for making a farce of democracy. Bangladesh cannot hold a one-sided election and risk suspension by Commonwealth.
To bring the nation back from the brink of disaster there is one person who can probably take the lead. President Abdul Hamid is supposed to be neutral and commands respect of both AL and BNP. He has moral responsibility to see that the republic is peaceful. He can summon the leaders of the two parties to Bangabhaban and ask them to resolve their differences peacefully. He will stand tall if he takes this initiative. His leadership will also forestall all foreign interferences.
Elections time has always been a festive occasion for the people of Bangladesh. Let us for once agree on the electiontime government and hold the election in a peaceful and festive atmosphere.
The writer is former ambassador and secretary.