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NBR receipts rise 17pc, but miss target

Political turmoil poised to widen revenue shortfall

Sohel Parvez
Revenue collection rose 17 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2013-14 on the back of steady income and VAT growth and an increase in customs receipts in September.
Tax receipts between July and September stood at Tk 24,627 crore in contrast to Tk 21,032 crore a year ago. But the growth was still insufficient for National Board of Revenue (NBR), as it fell short of its target for the quarter by Tk 1,313 crore.
Ahsan Mansur, executive director of Policy Research Institute, said the revenue shortfall will most definitely widen in the coming quarter given the bleak economic outlook arising from the political impasse.
The World Bank last week tipped economic growth to drop to 5.7 percent this fiscal year from previous year's 6.03 percent. "Business activities face disruption without a smooth political transition, which seems very unlikely," he said, while predicting the shortfall to be as high as Tk 10,000 crore by the end of the fiscal year if the current political situation lingers.
"Already we have seen tax returns filing drop this year," he added. The last date for submission of tax returns is October 31.
Meanwhile, the country's apex trade body, the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry, in a statement yesterday urged the government to extend the deadline to November 30.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, senior research fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue, attributed the improvement in tax receipts from customs level to higher exports.
Between July and September, collections from customs rose 4.64 percent from a year ago to Tk 7,748.60 crore.
VAT, the main pillar of revenue, registered a 22 percent growth to Tk 9,059 crore owing to consistency in growth in receipts of cigarettes, increased collection from travel industry and heightened monitoring. Income tax rose 28 percent year-on-year toTk7,316 crore, thanks to countrywide income tax fairs.
He echoed Mansur's view that the NBR would miss its collection target for the whole year due to political instability.
"The NBR will require registering over 25 percent average growth over the remaining nine months of the fiscal year to achieve that goal. Given the political instability, it is very unlikely," Khan said.
"Indirect tax collection depends on economic activity. So it will not be possible to boost revenue receipt through increased collection efforts unless dynamism returns in economic activities."
The NBR had earlier said it would be able to attain the Tk 136,000 crore revenue collection target for fiscal 2013-14 if the political climate remains favourable.