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Inflation slows, but risks loom large

Consumer Price Index may rise in coming months: experts

Reiaul Karim Byron
Inflation fell in the last four months, but the effects may not last long as experts fear that it may rise again on the back of a pay hike in the public sector, disrupted supply chain for political unrest and election spending.
Inflation slowed 0.26 percentage points to 7.13 percent in September, compared to August, according to data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Inflation dropped continuously from June.
"While inflation trends are on the right path, we would like to further see declines and hence our monetary policy stance remains as it is," Hassan Zaman, chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, toldThe Daily Star.
Zahid Hussain, lead economist at the World Bank Dhaka office, also said
the central bank should continue its current monetary policy stance as there are some risks ahead for inflation.
Inflation may increase if supply chains are disrupted by political unrest; the absence of any major political turmoil in the last few
months is one of the reasons behind the fall in inflation during the period, Hussain said.
If the election-related spending increases a lot, demand in the economy may surge, fuelling inflation, hesaid.
The government has given a 20 percent dearness allowance to all public and autonomous bodies and teachers under the monthly pay order yesterday with retrospective effect from July 1.
A finance ministry official said there will an additional spending worth more than Tk 4,000 crore from the public exchequer in the current fiscal year.
When the Tk 4,000 crore will be spent, it will create additional demand, which may have an impact on commodity prices, the official added.
FROM PAGE Bl
Price pressures in Bangladesh stem from expected increases in domestic fuel and electricity prices, likely supply disruptions because of national strikes, budget provision for higher public sector wages and expected wage increase in the garment industry once the wage board recommendations are made, the Asian Development Bank said in its Global Outlook released last week.
The monetary policy statement that the central bank released in July mentioned a probable wage increase in both the public and private sector as a risk for increase in inflation.
According to BBS data, both food and non-food inflation fell in September —food inflation decreased by 0.16 percent and stood at 7.93 percent and non-food inflation fell by 0.41 percent to stand at 5.94 percent.
Bangladesh imports both food and nonfood items from India, said the WB lead economist. The Bangladesh currency has appreciated much against the Indian currency, which had a positive impact on commodityprices in Bangladesh.
Food grain prices are also stable in international markets with adequate stocks, which helped reduce inflation, Hussain said.
Besides, there is a demand side weakness in the economy that had a cooling effect on inflation, he added.
Rice and wheat prices in September did not increase over the prices in August, according to theTradingCorporation of Bangladesh.
Prices of some commodities such as edible oil and lentils, except onions, went down. Prices of other commodities, except onion, did not increase and rather, remained stable.