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Can US-Iran move towards rapprochement?

Mahmood Hasan
The 68th session of the UN General Assembly attained significance because of two speeches - first by US President Barack Obama and then by Iranian President Hassan Rohani. Both spoke on September 24, the first day of the General Debate.
President Obama devoted almost his entire speech to problems facing the Middle East - Syria, Arab-Israeli conflict (over Palestine) and Iran.
Obama made some candid remarks about American interests in the Middle East and policies to protect them. Weary of a decade of war, the US was "shifting away from a perpetual war footing" he said. He outlined American policy towards the Middle East: (a) US will use force to secure its core interests in the region; (b) confront external aggression against its allies (meaning Israel); (c) ensure flow of oil from the region to the world; (d) take direct action with allies to dismantle terrorist networks; and, (e) will not tolerate development of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear weapons by Iran). He said his diplomatic efforts will focus on two issues during the remaining tenure of his presidency - Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and Arab-Israeli conflict.
Dwelling further on Iran, Obama recognised that there existed deep mistrust and suspicion between the two countries. He went on to say that this difficult history cannot be overcome overnight. "But I do believe that if we can resolve the issue of Iran's nuclear programme, that can serve as major step down a long road towards a different relationship, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect," was Obama's optimistic view.
Referring to the exchange of letters between him and Ayatollah Khomenei and the statements coming from newly elected President Hassan Rohani, Obama felt encouraged and asked John Kerry to pursue
the issue in close cooperation with the European Union, Russia and China. He warned: "US will never compromise our commitment to Israel's security, nor our support for its existence as a Jewish state. ”
President Rohani, in his unequivocal speech, accused the West for its "Cold War” mentality reflected through "coercive economic and military policies." "The age of zero-sum games is over,” he said. He went on: "Unjust sanctions, as manifestation of structural violence, are intrinsically inhumane and against peace... it is the common people who are victimised by these sanctions." On Iran's nuclear programme, Rohani categorically stated: "Iran poses absolutely no threat to the world or the region."
Elaborating, Rohani laid out two mutually inseparable parts of a political solution for Iran's nuclear programme: (a) nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran's security and defensive doctrine; and (b) acceptance of the right to enrichment (of uranium) inside Iran for peaceful purposes provides the only path towards achieving the first objective. Rohani said he listened to President Obama's speech and sought constructive engagement with other countries. Iran, he said, did not seek to increase tensions with United States and that "peace is within reach.” He wanted "time-bound and result-oriented talks."
The positive tone and tenor of the speeches by these two leaders created a flurry of diplomatic activities at the UN building. That led to a meeting of the foreign ministers of 'P5 plus Germany' with their Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif on September 26. The meeting prepared the ground for the first round of substantive meeting on October 15, 2013 in Geneva.
Earlier, it was expected that President Obama and President Rohani would have their first handshake at the luncheon hosted by Secretary General Ban Ki Moon on September 24. But that did not happen as the Iranian president did not appear for the meal. But what happened next shocked the Saudis, the Gulf States, Jordan, Turkey and above all Israel. On September 27, while Rohani was on his way to the airport to leave for Iran he received a phone call from President Obama. This was the first contact between the highest leaders of the two countries for more than 34 years. Obama later told reporters that he had a constructive conversation with Rohani.
All these developments did not come by suddenly. Oman, which maintains good relations with both US and Iran, played an important role to soften them and bring the two adversaries together at the United Nations.
Obama's ice-breaking overtures with Iran by did not go down well with Israel's Benyamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu termed Rohani's offer as "cynical." Rohani's message was a "real diplomatic challenge for Israel" commented an Israeli Professor. On October 1, addressing the General Assembly, Netanyahu spent his entire speech lashing at Rohani. He cautioned that Rohani was using charm to get the sanctions lifted. He declared that "Israel will stand alone" to defend itself. Iran retaliated by calling upon Israel to sign the NPT and declare that it did not have nuclear weapons.
Rohani has no doubt increased Iran's profile with the West by departing from the rhetoric of his predecessor. But can Iran really deliver what the West is asking for? Is Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei agreeable to open up all
Iran's nuclear facilities and satisfy the IAEA and 'P5 plus Germany' that it is not involved in anything dreadful? Can Rohani override the Revolutionary Guards (IRG), who are deeply anti-West, and make a deal on it nuclear programme?
As for the Americans, lifting the sanctions and getting a deal will be equally difficult. Firstly, some sanctions were imposed by the UN, some by the US Congress and some by President Obama. Obama can do little with the Congress imposed sanctions. Especially when Congress has shut down Obama's government. Besides, the powerful American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) will wield all its powers to stop Washington from reaching any understanding with Iran. Yet, in the words of Obama, it is worth trying the diplomatic approach to resolve this problem. Obama said in his speech that waging wars did not guarantee the results US had wanted in Iraq and Afghanistan. He did not want US to fight "dumb wars.” Why not first try the peaceful approach? There is a saying: "You can catch a fly with honey not with vinegar." Clearly, Obama Doctrine is evolving.
The first step towards a new discourse has been made by both US and Iran. But actual rapprochement can be achieved only after some irreversible confidence building measures are put in place. To put it in John Kerry's words: "A lot of work remained to be done."
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