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UN Resolution on Syria: Putin outsmarts Obama

Mahmood Hasan
ON September 27, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2118 (2013) requiring Syria to destroy its chemical weapons. All the Security Council members are happy at their unusual unity. The world heaved a sigh of relief as a new war was not started by the Americans. Syria too is relieved that US missiles will not rain on Damascus, at least for now.
It all started in St. Petersburg at the G20 Summit (Sept. 5-6). Though the group was expected to discuss the world economic situation, the Syrian issue dominated and preoccupied the leaders attending the Summit. That was because President Obama, before coming to the Summit, had threatened to punish Damascus for using chemical weapons on August 21, in which more than 1,300 people were killed. American warships were ready in Eastern Mediterranean to launch missiles at Damascus.
Relations between Washington and Moscow are already strained because of the Snowden affair. Yet, at the Summit, President Obama and President Putin met on the sidelines of the meeting. It was Putin, long time ally of Bashar Al Assad, who hinted that Syria should surrender its chemical weapons arsenal to international control. Obama grabbed at the idea because, back in Washington, he was having trouble trying to convince the Congress to approve a military assault on Syria.
Weary of a decade-long war, American public opinion was hostile to the idea of another war. Obama's leadership credibility was at stake. He could not go to war, he could not "not go to war." Putin's hint was a face-saving strategy and Obama fell for it. Putin's suggestion was not abrupt, but well thought out. He knew that Obama would have to accept it as he had no other alternative.
Thereafter the two foreign ministers — John Kerry and Serjey Lavrov - started a bout of rhetoric. Kerry stated in London (Sept. 9) that Syria could avoid US bombing if it turned in all its chemical weapons. But he did not think the Syrians would actually agree to that. Lavrov went a step ahead and stated that if there were no air strikes against Syria, he would work with Syria to not only get the weapons under international control but also to have them destroyed. Despite differences in views, Kerry and Lavrov agreed to meet in Geneva (Sept. 12-14), which produced the "Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons." The Framework was actually the basis for the Security Council Resolution.
A reading of the Resolution brings out several interesting points: i) Syria has to give up all its chemical weapons to the "Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons" (OPCW), which will destroy them; ii) there is no mention of other weapons which are as dangerous as chemical weapons; iii) the timeframe has been fixed for mid-2014; iv) no blame has been apportioned for the use of chemical weapons - neither the Syrian government nor the rebels have been accused ; v) most significantly, there is no provision for punishing
Syria if it violates the Resolution; vi) if indeed it violates the stipulations, a fresh resolution to punish Syria will have to be adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter; vii) that means a new round of diplomatic demarche, which may come under Russian veto; viii) above all, the Resolution does not mention any concrete measure to stop the ongoing civil war. Annex II of the Resolution calls for an international conference on the basis of Geneva Communique of June 30, 2012. It stipulates cessation of all hostilities between government forces and the rebels.
Different sections of the Resolution have been largely determined by Lavrov and reflect the Russian position on Syria. Kerry wanted to include punitive measures if Syria failed to live up to the Resolution, but gave in to Lavrov's refusal. That way, Russia retained control over the entire process.
Syria, meanwhile, has taken steps to comply with the Resolution. It has submitted the lists of weapons it possesses, allowed UN inspectors to visit the sites where the weapons are located, and has signed "Chemical Weapons Convention” (CWC). By signing the CWC Syria undertakes not to use chemical weapons.
The rebels have blamed Assad's forces of using chemical weapons on previous occasions too. But that was not taken very seriously by the Americans and others. At that time, Obama drew the famous 'red line' saying that if Syria did use chemical weapons, actions would be taken against it.
This time around, Washington got worried when Israelis detected that 'sarin nerve gas' was used, which caused civilian deaths. Israeli intelligence claim that they also recorded conversations between Syrian army officers involved in using chemical weapons. Actually, who used the weapons remains a mystery. There is no conclusive proof of the aggressor. For Washington, the 'red line' was crossed because Tel Aviv felt threatened that this weapon could be used against Israel. Hence, Obama's threat to bomb Damascus. But having made the threat Obama landed himself in political quicksand. In a sense, Putin has helped Obama save himself from an extremely embarrassing situation. It was a pyrrhic victory for President Obama.
Recently, Syrian Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil said that the war had reached a stalemate and neither side could win. He called for a ceasefire. One would hope that the Geneva Conference gets going soon to find a diplomatic solution to the civil war that has already cost 120,000 dead and sent over 2 million refugees to neighbouring countries.
The Security Council Resolution of September 27 is the first demonstration of the world body coming together unanimously in more than two years to address the Syrian crisis. All previous draft resolutions condemning Syria were blocked by Russian veto. Putin continues to insist that the crisis has to be resolved peacefully. Diplomatically seen, Putin has outsmarted Obama and got his way. The writer is a former ambassador and secretary.