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Where is the electric vehicle headed?

Syed Mansur Hashim
DRIVING an electric vehicle (EV) is akin to making a statement. The owner obviously cares for the environment to the point that the substantial additional investment required to procure an EV over and on top of a similarly equipped petrol-driven vehicle, is considered justified. Though EV sales more than doubled between 2011 and 2012, electric vehicles
represent a mere 0.2% of global vehicle sales. Yet, the industry is projecting sales to jump to approximately 2% bytheyear 2020.
It is understandable why major global car companies are investing heavily in EVs. With $8.7 billion invested in research and development since 2008, some crucial breakthroughs have taken place, like reduction in the price of batteries that power EVs. It also explains why 8 out of the 10 top automobile manufacturers (controlling an approximate 63% of global market share) have or are in the process of introducing EV models. With maturing technology, EV is perhaps one of the more promising technologies that could play a major role in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, a major cause of global warming.
EVs, if introduced in significant numbers, serve the purposes of countries hoping to conform to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) "2DS" scenario that depicts a "future energy system that would limit average global temperature increases to 20C by 2050. In this scenario, the transport sector's potential share of overall CO2 reductions would be 21% by 2050. In order to meet this share, three-fourths of all vehicle sales by 2050 would need to be plug-in electric of some type."
According to IEA data, several countries are in the process of assisting the growth of the EV sector by providing sizeable investments in R&D and consumer incentives. The past two years have been particularly significant for the EV market. In 2010, there were a maximum of 3 EV models widely available to consumers; in 2012 that number had jumped to about 8. This trend suggests that the average consumer has more choice in terms of product variety, a key feature that could help increase sales in the future.
China, that represents one of the largest car markets in the world, has introduced electric taxis in Shenzhen and Hangzhou. Impressive sales figures have been recorded in France, Netherlands and the US. The success of EVs depends in large part to the availability and convenience with each these vehicles may be "charged." Charging is either "slow" or "fast" and roadmaps differ from country
to country. Japan intends to have 2 million slow charge and 5,000 fast charging points by 2020, the US has a deployment target of more than 22,000 chargers over the same period and the Netherlands hopes to have 20,000 slow and 100 fast chargers by 2015. Each country will inevitably follow a different path choosing between slow and fast charging. That pattern will largely depend on consumer preference.
From what has been discussed thus far, the EV market should keep on growing. The massive surge in sales in 2012 compared to preceding years can in part be attributed to the national policy initiatives of some of the biggest economies. As highlighted in a recent IEA publication titled Global EV Outlook, China allows purchase subsidies of up to RMB60,000 while Denmark waivers registra-
tion and road tax on purchase of EVs and integrating EVs into the electricity smart grid. Another big player India is giving subsidy of Indian Rs. 100,000 or 20% of the cost of vehicle (whichever is lower) and fostering partnership across government, private sector, industry and academia forR&D efforts.
At the end of the day, would a burgeoning global electric vehicle industry have any serious impact on the Bangladesh automobile scenario? Probably not; as we have neither the financial support to initiate any of the many forms of subsidies mentioned above, nor are we in any state to supply the electricity that will be required for EVs to recharge. In addition, the passenger vehicle segment in our market is heavily dominated by used or, "reconditioned" vehicles. At the end of the day, the cost differential between the average petrol-driven and electric vehicle is at present too high to attract any major attention from potential vehicle owners in Bangladesh.
The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.