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SUNDAY POUCH

India's rush to a blue water navy!

India feels that her emerging global status requires a military arm that can enforce her diktat in the region. A strong navy is therefore an imperative for it.

Ashfaqur Rahman
LAST week, a terrible accident happened in a naval dockyard in Mumbai. A fully armed conventional Indian submarine, INS Sindhurakshak, 'exploded in flames' and sank with 18 naval personnel which included 3 Navy officers. The incident has been reported to have made 'a dent' in India's defenses. The submarine had just returned from a visit to its original manufacturer at the Zvezdochka shipyard in Russia after an $80
million refit.
Accidents like this are rare yet they have happened in the annals of the navy. The Indian government is yet to announce the cause of the accident. Experts say that hydrogen gas may have leaked from its 500 batteries, which a spark may have ignited, causing the mighty explosion. There were missiles and explosives stored nearby and they added to the severity of the accident. This submarine had suffered from such a leakage from the battery valves a few years earlier with a loss of one life. But this time round the navy did not check the refurbished batteries.
The Indian navy is today the fifth largest in the world and the largest in the region. Its writ runs from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of Indonesia. It patrols the seas and coasts along the Indian Ocean littoral as well as the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. More than 58,000 navy personnel run an operational fleet that consists of one aircraft carrier, one
amphibious transport deck, eight guided missile destroyers, fifteen frigates, one nuclear submarine, fourteen (now thirteen) conventional submarines, twenty four corvettes and seven mine sweeping vessels. Besides the naval platforms it also has an air arm which engages in naval surveillance and intelligence.
India has 187 big and small ports dotted along its 7,500 km long coastline. The state of Maharashtra on the west coast has 53 ports to secure. Along the east coast there are 54 littoral ports. Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal have 23 ports. So the Indian navy is tasked to protect the sea lanes to all these ports. It also has to counter piracy in the high seas, which it had been doing effectively off the coast of Somalia recently. It participates in periodical military exercises in the deep waters off its shores with the USA, Australia and Japan.
The Indian navy has embarked on a 15 year modernisation programme, as a part of which this ill-fated Indian submarine was sent to its manufacturer in Russia to be refitted and upgraded. The strategic imperative behind India seeking a modern blue-water navy was clearly stated by the Indian prime minister recently. He said: "India's growing international stature gives it a strategic relevance in the area ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca." He explained that "India has exploited the fluidities of the emerging world order to forge new lines through a combination of diplomatic repositioning, eco-nomic resurgence and military firmness."
Thus India feels that her emerging global status requires a military arm that can enforce her diktat in the region. In two distinctive doctrinal papers, the 2004 'Indian Maritime Doctrine' and the 2006 'Indian Navy's Vision Document,' it was clearly pointed out that the Indian navy "is a prime instrument of state policy" and India "is determined to create and sustain a three dimensional, technology enabled and networked force, capable of safeguarding maritime interests on the high seas and projecting combat power across its littoral."
Ground realities somewhat support India's craving to have a blue water navy. India imports 75% of its oil and 16% of its gas. The Indian economy is therefore increasingly dependent on energy imports. By 2031, it has been projected that India will need to import 78% of its coal, 67% of its gas and 93%of its oil to meet its demands. Much of these imports will come from 34 exploration projects that India has cleverly invested in 15 countries abroad. The Indian navy will then be tasked to bring these products safely back home.
A strong navy is therefore an imperative for it. Added to that is the escalating strategic rivalry between India and China, which requires India to beef up its naval assets.
Increasingly too, both USA and Japan seek Indian naval support in containing the growing influence of China in this region.
India has therefore agreed to commit $60 billion in the next 15 years on a new acquisition programme for its navy. No doubt it will be decommissioning several of its older warships. But it intends to increase the size of its fleet in the next four years, that is by 2017, from the present 132 to 150 ships of various
categories. In fact, 49 new ships and submarines are under construction now, which will be inducted into the navy in the coming five years.
Interestingly, 45 of these ships are being built in 23 Indian dockyards - both public and private. The Indian navy is focused on acquiring new attack submarines, aircraft carriers, naval strike aircraft, long-range fleet tankers, amphibious platforms including frigates and destroyers. About 400 new aircraft will be commissioned in the air arm of the Indian navy by the end of the 15 year modernisation programme.
This huge and expensive programme is increasingly becoming a matter of concern for her smaller neighbours. Bangladesh with its small navy will find it difficult to deter the Indian navy if it decides to enforce its will in the Bay of Bengal. In spite of the fact that we are in the final stage of obtaining a judgment from international arbitrators on the delimitation of our maritime border with India, the fact will remain that enforcing the best practices, once the sovereign waters are known, could be arduous. With such a preponderant force multiplier in our immediate vicinity it will no doubt keep our policy planners engaged.
A new security architecture must be built that can effectively engage the Indian navy and at the same time allow peaceful coexistence.
The writer is a former ambassador and a regular commentator on current issues. E-mail: ashfaque303@gmail.com