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Political dynasties, succession plans

The Economist sheds light on Bangladesh
The Economist, a London-based weekly publication, has run an article "The battling begums: The pendulum swings away from Sheikh Hasina and her government", reflecting on Bangladesh politics, the recent court verdict on Jamaat-e-Islami, war crimes trial, the crackdown on Hefajat-e Islam and other issues.
"Ahead of the festival of Eid-al-Fitr on August 9th-llth, the two quarrelling heads of Bangladesh's political dynasties exchanged greetings cards. But the outward signs of
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peace between the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League, and the opposition leader, Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), mean little," read the article posted on its website on August 10.
"A European diplomat says he has just sent two cables to his capital. The first discusses the growing chances of the League's defeat in elections due by next January. The second is about the dynastic succession plans of the battling begums.
"One political party is likely to be missing at the coming election. On August 1 st, the High Court ruled that the country's biggest religious party, the Jamaat-e-Islami, is unfit to contest national polls because its charter puts God above democratic process. The court has cancelled Jamaat's registration. A few months ago this might have sealed victory for the League, for Jamaat has been a crucial vote-winning ally for BNP.
"Yet growing numbers now doubt whether the League can win a second consecutive term, and not only because no elected
government has ever done so in Bangladesh," it said.
The write-up also made mentions of the ongoing war crimes trial and the crackdown on Hefajat-e Islam in the capital in May.
"... the BNP has been in the ascendant It thrashed the League in mayoral elections in June and July, notably in Gazipur in the industrial belt, hitherto one of the League's safest constituencies.
"In an attempt to reverse its fortunes, the government plans to raise wages for 4m garment workers, who are angry at its failure to make factories safe and to compensate relatives of more than 1,100 killed in a ghastly factory collapse in May.
"A wage rise could sway many voters, but factory bosses are likely to resist a deal. A push against party corruption would also boost Sheikh Hasina's popularity. A good third of her MPs dare not visit their fiefs for fear of being lynched for treating their constituencies as cash tills. Yet no precedent exists for firing miscreants, and appointing credible candidates would probably split the party."
"As a last resort, Sheikh Hasina's son and heir appar-
ent, Sajeeb Wazed, was handed around for three weeks in July before flying back to the United States. At this point, he looks like a non-starter.
"His dynastic counterpart, Tarique Rahman, Mrs Zia's son, is wilier. He would jump on a plane from London tomorrow. His mother is in poor health and keen to pass powerto her first-born."
“But he faces charges of corruption and money laundering in Bangladesh: Mr Rahman was instrumental in ensuring that the BNP's last stint in power was a glorious plunder. He would go straight to jail unless the League agrees in the coming weeks to pass control of the country's institutions to a caretaker government for the elections, a stickingpoint that could trigger a constitutional crisis.
“The League will fight bitterly. But if it loses an election, the BNP would rehabilitate its disgraced heir and its Jamaat allies (at least, those not executed by then). Once a party is in power in Bangladesh it is the unalterable tradition to declare nearly everything decreed by your opponents to be null and void, "it said.