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CROSSTALK

An opinion about opinion polls
IN 1948, the Gallup poll predicted Thomas Dewey was going to win, but proved wrong when Harry Truman was elected US president. Few days later George Gallup, the pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, was stopped by a policeman for driving down a one-way street in the wrong direction. When the policeman saw the name on Gallup's driving license, he is said to have grinned broadly and exclaimed: "Wrong again!" That exclamation couldn't be uttered when several newspapers in the country conducted opinion polls last week, simply because we had no reasons to believe they were wrong. But the polls varied in their respective conclusions. In many cases, the findings didn't conform to perception. For example, despite so much rape, killing and abduction around us, one of the surveys stated that the law and order situation had improved. Another survey contradicted that position.
On Padma Bridge, people were expected to be critical but one survey revealed that majority of them supported the government's handling of this crucial project. Likewise, fewer percentage of respondents believed in 2012, compared to 2011, that the government failed to control prices. When fuel and electricity prices went up so many times last year, it was baffling to learn that people should have felt more relieved last year compared to the previous one.
One of the hard-to-digest news comes from the agriculture sector. This is one sector besides education that has been always extolled as a
star performer. But one of the polls showed a yawning gap in terms of whether the farmers have benefited from the steps taken by the government. A resoundingly high number of survey participants appeared to have differed.
In some cases, the poll findings have challenged common sense. One of the surveys poorly rated the home minister. In all fairness, this minister was appointed to his job only four months ago. One doesn't have to pay taxes if one works for less than six months of a year. The home minister shouldn't have been included in the annual evaluation. Neither should have been the communication minister, who also came to his job last September. The same survey gave the third position to our deadweight foreign minister only to intensify the fallacy that doing nothing is better than doing anything.
Most of the surveys showed the government has fewer successes than failures. It has done consistently well in education, reasonably well in infrastructure development, and
marginally well in power generation. In one survey, people have claimed that standard of living has gone up in last four years.
On the other hand, people have said that law and order and judicial system have suffered a decline, and partisan influence has seeped into every corner of the government. In one survey they even expressed doubts if the government is taking the right steps towards the trial of war criminals.
Survey conducted by one vernacular daily claimed that more people believe the government hasn't done enough to bring the opposition to the parliament. A whopping percentage don't support the way the government behaved with the opposition during last four years. More people said that corruption has gone up during the tenure of this government. A large percentage has expressed dissatisfaction over government's ability to control prices.
Other findings of this survey have been equally dismal. People don't
think the Election Commission can work freely under this government. They have poorly rated the government's treatment of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, doubted that the AntiCorruption Commission is independent, despaired at the bilateral relations with India, and strongly disapproved government's attitude towards the media. The survey participants have also expressed their unhappiness over how the government is running the parliament. They are deeply dejected that the government has failed to keep its promise to create more jobs.
Then there are these dashboard indicators. People's approval of how this government ran the country has declined. More frightening is that they are worried the country overall has been heading in the wrong direction. That, however, has been inconsistent with another survey that said more people think the country is heading in the right direction.
While all surveys agreed that the ruling part leader has a popularity edge over her rival, one vernacular daily contradicted itself. It said that although the government lost popularity, the prime minister enjoyed greater confidence of people. That's like saying a box-office flop won an Oscar for best actor or best direction.
The newspaper should have run a correction of its sub-headline or explained where it saw the connection. The prime minister's popularity showed a piddling one percent rise, which cannot be statistically significant. For untrammeled eyes, the popularity of both leaders is the same. At best they're equally popular or unpopular. An opinion poll, willingly or unwillingly opinionated, smacks of propaganda.
The writer is Editor, First News and an opinion writer for The Dally Star.
Email: badrull51@yahoo.com