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AL still ahead of BNP in votes, but narrowly

People believe free elections not possible under party govt; corruption appears as a crucial weakness of govt

Star Report
The Daily Star's latest opinion poll shows if elections are held today, the Awami League is likely to secure more votes than its archrival BNP with the latter closing the gap noticeably.
The gap between the two parties has narrowed to such an extent that the future looks wide open for both the parties.
The swing voters still appear as a very significant segment capable of putting any party in power. Two years ago, they constituted a big chunk of 26 percent of voters who were undecided. Last year, it dramatically came down to 9 percent, coinciding with a similar dramatic rise in BNP's votes. This year this segment rose by 1 percent and commands a sway over the future politics, in which the support base of AL is 42 percent and that of BNP is 39 percent.
In the last three years, a large number of the swing voters have taken position behind mainly BNP. The rest seem to be still in wait to pull up the surprise.
However, a significant high number of people believe a free and fair election is not possible under a party government. Only a caretaker government can deliver such an election, they believe.
The Awami League-led government enters its final year regaining some of its lost ground in critical areas like law and order, economy, education and trial of war criminals. Yet a large segment of the population remains dissatisfied and sceptical about its performance.
The government appears to have consolidated its hold on rural voters significantly in the last one year. But its popularity in the urban areas dipped noticeably, making for a wide
rural-urban divide in the support base of the ruling party.
BNP continues to lag behind its arch rival AL but it also has turned a crucial corner and has closed the gap significantly.
On a personal level, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Opposition Leader Khaleda Zia have both gained popularity with Hasina maintaining a lead.
These are the findings of a poll, sixth in the series, conducted on 2,510 respondents in 44 of the 64 districts covering all the seven administrative divisions. Designed by The Daily Star, it was conducted by the Centre for Strategic Research from December2 to December 14,2012.
Corruption is the biggest source of dissatisfaction against the government which people
FROM PAGE 1 believe has permeated from the top to the grassroots levels.
The survey reveals that the vote bank, which is traditionally bipolarised, has further become bi-partisan with vote shares of Jatiya Party and Jamaat lessening.
People who earlier thought they would not vote have also become politically conscious and have taken sides with the parties.
Because of the narrow difference between the two parties, Jatiya Party --though its vote share has lessened — can still enjoy the position of ultimate deciding factor.
The survey also reveals that AL enjoys a good support among the poor and the middle class. It also has a huge rural following.
The number one factor seems to be the low food prices which has helped the majority of the rural popula-
tion, who are either marginal farmers or landless and have to buy food.
Improvement and expansion in rural education, road network, proper fertiliser distribution, expansion of social safety network and fewer crimes are likely to be the other reasons for the government's strong show in rural areas.
Factors such as Padma bridge graft, railway scam or Hall-Mark scam, which had a big negative impact on urban voters, did not affect the opinion of the rural people.
The urban voters witnessed more violence, crimes, political unrest and had more information on the government's corruption. These had a negative impact on urban voters' perception of the government, thus making for the rural-urban percentage gap.
Since two-thirds of the
people polled came from rural areas, their big support of the government had given it an overall better rating.
On the other hand, BNP's supporters are more urban centric and come from higher income group.
FIGURES SPEAK
The Daily Star has conducted six political surveys, including this one. The first one was done 100 days after the current government had come to power. The next five surveys were done one year (January 2010), one and a half years (August 2010), two years (January 2011), three years and four years after the incumbent government had been formed.
The Daily Star has been asking the question, "Which party would you vote for if an election was held now" for the last five surveys.
As our survey one and a half years ago showed, 41 percent respondents said they would vote for the AL if
an election was held right then. One year ago, almost a similar 39 percent said so. Last year, 40 percent said they would vote for AL. But this time, 42 percent said they would vote for AL, showing that AL's votes have increased slightly but remain around the same level.
In comparison, only 20 percent said they would vote for BNP one and a half years ago. One year ago, 22 percent endorsed BNP. Last year, BNP found a jump in its votes as 37 percent said they would vote for the BNP. And this year, it has been able to increase its votes to 39 percent.
People who did not respond to the question of which party they would vote for if an election was held on the day has slightly increased to 10 percent from 9 percent last year. In the previous two polls held at the completion of the
government's one and a half years, and two years, 25 percent people did not respond. They actually represented the swing voters.
The “Will not vote” segment also reduced by two percentage point to zero percent. Jatiya Party's votes slipped to 5 percent from 6 percent last year. Jamaat also lost 1 percentage point from previous year's and its vote share now stands at 1 percent.
The survey revealed that Sheikh Hasina's popularity as the prime minister, which was on the decline since AL came to power and hit rock bottom last year, has recovered this year. Last year, 40 percent said they were happy with her performance. This year 48 percent said so.
Khaleda Zia's popularity as the leader of the opposition also increased from 30 percent last year to 39 per-
cent.
The government also fared well regarding people's perception about how the country is being governed. In fact, the result this year is quite a reversal of last year's.
Last year, more people thought that the country was heading in the wrong direction. But this year, the number of sceptics has gone down while the optimists have increased dramatically.
Such a high score was possible because of rural people’s favourable view on economy, inflation, crime and corruption.
Corruption remains the Achilles' heel as 46 percent said graft has increased while 34 percent said it has decreased. Forty-seven percent also said AL grassroots workers are now involved in corruption and an equal number feel that ministers and MPs are into corruption too.