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A man next time?

It should be clear to all that neither of the two parties is able to command sufficient public support to be able to politically (or otherwise) crush the other decisively, once and for all. If we take this assumption as fact, the only way open for the political parties is to arrive at a consensus. There simply is no other alternative! Or is there?

K.A.S. MURSHID
I am willing to wager the princely sum of BDT1 that neither of our two Great Leaders (GL) will make it in the next general election, if that is, elections are held at all.
In other words, people of Bangladesh would love to see these two GL take a well-deserved rest for five years and allow a man, any man, to take charge for a little while. It may well be that he too will mess things up -- but hopefully, the nature of the mess will at least be different!
Why the wager? I sense a distinct change in the mood of the masses, grown weary of the same old story being repeated ad infinitum. Thus, the people are in a mood for experimentation given all the hazards that go with such experiments. The question is, is there a man to be found?
Apart from our very own "Poet Laureate" -- much discussed, much debated, much the underdog these days --there are a few others that in fact come to mind. There is our Nobel Laureate -- perhaps even more maligned and harassed --a man who however is likely to have "learned his lesson" and will in all likelihood, stay miles away from politics.
Then there are the two boys; the princelings who presumably would not mind being crowned, especially in a situation when the nation "demands" it of them -- ay there's the rub. Unfortunately, there is likely to be a rather large demandside deficit for a princedom this time around. I am sure their turn will come one day, though. It's just that it hasn't come yet, and timing, after all is everything in such matters.
So are we then left all alone with the poet? Much as many would find this option difficult to swallow, I fear this is where we may well be headed -- unless of course, other things happen first. In this context, a number of possibilities come to mind -- none of which are particularly appetising, and hence best avoided. Of far greater relevance perhaps is the question of why, once again, we are running headlong towards the precipice. If I remember correctly, no one really came off very well from that sort of experience the last time we tried it. Why would it be any different this time? Have we forgotten all those "minus" theories, the abandoned BMWs by the wayside, the exodus of the well heeled to Singapore, the Truth Commission, and so on? Am I mistaken or was it the case that ordinary people breathed a sigh of relief in the face of efforts by the government of the time to reign-in corruption? I can certainly vouch for the fact that I did not have to pay Rajuk a single taka to get my building plan approved!
Unfortunately, the CTG Alliance bit off much more than it could chew and quickly lost control of the game. Isn't there a very clear, loud message nevertheless that continues to reverberate down the years or have we all become deaf and blind (dumb we are not of course although sometimes I feel that that may not have been such a bad thing).
It should be clear to all that neither of the two parties is able to command sufficient public support to be able to politically (or otherwise) crush the other decisively, once and for all. If we take this assumption as fact, the only way open for the political parties is to arrive at a consensus. There simply is no other alternative! Or is there?
Actually, Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia managed things very well. Could he be a possible role model for us? Hun Sen was ultimately able to scuttle and finally eliminate the rival Funcinpec (Royalist) Party led by Prince Ranaridh. Incidentally, Ranaridh actually won the elections in the early 1990s but had to agree to a coalition government with Hun Sen's Cambodia Peoples' Party given the latter's superior fire-power! Those were the days when Cambodia had two prime ministers, two armies, two police forces, etc. Hun Sen, over the years managed to dismantle Funcinpec brick by brick until such a stage that Ranaridh had to run away (back to Paris) while CPP reigns supreme, unchallenged, save by a few obscure, newly emerged political parties with little support and zero clout.
Hun Sen has forced democracy to take a back seat (as in fact is the case throughout SE Asia). In exchange, Cambodia has achieved political stability and high economic growth, despite rampant, unabated corruption. Phnom Penh is no longer a run-down, decrepit town but a vibrant, clean, gleaming city. Per capita GDP after a decade of double-digit growth has now reached $1,000 -- significantly higher than that of Bangladesh.
Can Hun Sen's strategy be repeated here? In theory yes
but in practice, it would be suicidal! Bangladesh is not Cambodia -- we have a long history of popular political participation, a history of political struggle against dictators and autocrats where this sort of strategy would inevitably fall flat on its face. Any move towards another dictatorship (in whatever form) would fail miserably, ushering in even greater uncertainty and instability.
There is no shortage of adventurers on either side of the political divide advocating for a stern, uncompromising stance against their opponents. There is a real danger
that the hawks could sway the mood of our GLs who are already reeling under complex, multiple pressures from all sides. There may thus be a temptation to go for drastic action in the hope of gaining a few additional years in office -- of course all hell will break loose in the process but this is something "we can worry about later!" We may even be able to convince ourselves that that indeed is the right, moral way forward.
Let me, however, end with a positive note (and one that may actually help me win my bet): I truly think that the only way AL can get another term in office is to announce a new (unrelated male) leader who will be PM if it commands enough seats in parliament. Such a move would galvanise public opinion in AL's favour.
In the same vein, BNP too can guarantee a win in the next elections by simply announcing an unrelated, male leader as its future PM (with the GL taking a back seat a la Sonia Gandhi).
In the unlikely event that both parties adopt my suggested policy advice, the outcome would be difficult to predict. But at least I would have won my bet.
The writer is an economist, researcher, and development worker.
E-mail: kas_murshid@yahoo.com