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Mulayam, Mayawati key to UPA survival

Star Report
Trinamool Congress boss Mamata Banerjee on Tuesday delivered a stiff blow to the UPA government by withdrawing her support in protest against the hike in fuel prices and the decision to allow FDI in multi-brand retail, reducing the regime to a minority and to critical dependence of fickle-minded and ultra-pragmatic players like the SP and the BSP.
The announcement in Kolkata may not pose an immediate threat to the UPA government but will lead to a spell of political uncertainty that can bring forward the election sched-uledfor2014.
The West Bengal chief minister blamed the split on Congress, and said it was the latter's recent unilateralism in reforms measures which had forced her to take the drastic step.
The withdrawal of the 19 TMC MPs in the lower house of parliament puts the government in a minority.
But it is unlikely to desta- bilise the coalition in the short term. Congress has the formal support of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), who have a combined total of 43 seats in parliament, to keep it afloat. It needs a minimum of 272 seats out of 543 in the lower house.
So, is India headed towards a mid-term poll? If
one goes by the history, then the SP and the BSP will most likely give outside support to UPA-2 so that the government can stay afloat.
In fact, the support from these quarters can take UPA's figure to above 300. Congress's calculation puts the tally of the ruling alliance at 284 even after discounting the 22 Lok Sabha members belonging to Samajwadi Party which hopes to profit from an earlyelection.
The main opposition party, BJP, will push for a confidence vote but it cannot officially do so until parliament reopens in the next session due in December.
A BJP leader, however, said the party wouldn't rush into such a decision -considering that the parties supporting the Congress often take 'U-turns'. The SP and BSP sources also suspect that there could be
some renegotiations between the Congress and Banerjee by tomorrow, when Trinamool ministers are expected to quit the government.
BSP chief Mayawati is expected to take a call only on October 10, when the BSP's executive meets. The party, however, will continue to oppose FDI and diesel hike.
However, those are conjectures for posterity. For the time being Congress' worst fears have come true. The grand old party was perhaps hoping that Mamata would not withdraw support or if it did then it would continue giving outside support. Now the Congress will be completely dependent on Mulayam and Maya. Even if the two Ms extend their support to UPA-2, the government has been rendered unstable.