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Moody's reassigns stable rating to Bangladesh
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"While monetary policy has resulted in some deceleration in inflation, a sustainable moderation in price pressures would rest on continued expenditure restraint and a containment of government borrowing," said Moody's.
It said an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) by the International Monetary Fund guides the pipeline for policy reforms. While the upcoming elections — due in late 2013 -- may pose risks to fiscal discipline, policymakers appear to be on track towards meeting programme targets.
A visiting IMF mission has also expressed its satisfaction over the government's performances in meeting conditions to get the second tranche of about $ 1 billion in loans over the next three years.
The governor said the ECF programme has given a thumbs-up on the country's macroeconomic programmes.
"Whenever any external pressure comes up, Bangladesh can respond by giving flexibility to the exchange rate, which we have shown recently through tight monetary policies."
"Our ability to adopt policies has increased, "he told The Daily Star.
Moody's said, while the contentious political landscape has dented investor confidence, event risks from abrupt political regime changes or policy shifts are manageable.
It said, over the near term, the real GDP growth may edge closer to 6 percent, with the global environment weighing on exports, infrastructure constraints deterring investments, and an expected slowdown in remittances.
Over the longer term, a shift to a more
sustainable growth trajectory of around 7 percent per annum would entail a host of reforms. Namely, a scaling up infrastructure would improve the investment environment and may also help diversify the export base, it said.
The agency said Bangladesh's near-term risks are concentrated in areas such as exports, foreign direct investment and foreign aid.
Exports are poorly diversified, both by products and regions, largely weighted towards garments and heavily exposed to Europe. Labour unrest could also potentially disrupt production as workers demand higher wages and better working conditions.
On the poor flow of foreign aid, Moody's said the recent volatility in such flows is underscored by the recent withdrawal of a $1.2 billion project credit by the World Bank towards the construction of the Padma bridge due to transparency issues.
Rahman echoed the concerns expressed by Moody's in case of infrastructures. But he also said: "I consider these problems as opportunities, as they give us scopes to make investment."
He also talked about the loan scam at state-run Sonali Bank. "It is an isolated incident and will not affect the banking sector. The Moody's report has also said that the banking sector is very stable and no major accident will take place and we have the management capacity to address the issue."
"I am quite confident that the management of the macro-economy is quite efficient," he said, urging the local and foreign investors to have confidence upon the macro-economy."