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Global food crisis of 2013

Habibul Haque Khondker
COLUMN writers and academics are often criticised for discussing or pointing out problems but not offering solutions. To preempt such a criticism, I start by proposing a solution: buy rice from Russia and beef up the cereal stock for 2013.
Why am I suggesting importing rice? Here, I present the case. In the festivities of Ramadan and Eid holidays and the hogging of newspapers by political stories, two important news items might not have been given the attention they deserve. It is also likely that the top politicians of the ruling party as well as those of the major opposition did not pick up the warnings or glossed over them, since their priority at the moment is the modality of the interim, i.e., non-party (or multi-party) government that would conduct a clean and neutral election in 2014.
The news coming out of the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), and other media points to an impending shortage of cereal in 2013. "The severe deterioration of maize crop prospects in the United States, following drought conditions and excessive heat during critical stages of the crop development, pushed up maize prices by almost 23% in July [2012]. International wheat quotations also surged (by 19%), amid a worsening of production prospects in the Russian Federation and expectations of a firm demand for wheat from the livestock sector for the second consecutive season because of tight maize supplies. By contrast, international rice prices remained mostly unchanged in July, with the FAO overall Rice Price index stable at 238, barely one point more than in June."
First, drought in the US which has cut down the maize production, which in turn will put added demand on corn. As petroleum prices remain unchanged, the incentive for ethanol production will remain high. The US and Brazil are the world
leaders in ethanol production and an increasing number of automobiles in the US are switching from imported gasoline to home-grown ethanol. Drought also affected India and parts of Russia, impacting on cereal production. Add to that continued economic instability in Europe which shows little sign of respite or for that matter slowing down of the world economy with two of its new engines, China and India, showing slowing trends.
Althouh droughts and conflicts threaten famine in Somalia, some of the fastest growing economies are now in the African continent, which prompted The Monthly Atlnatic to name Africa as "the next
Asia." Countries that were once poster boys of hunger -- Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Rwanda — have made a turnaround by a mixture of good governance, foriegn assistance and favourable weather situation. Bangladesh too has been able to change its image from a hungry nation to a nation where senior officials often talk about food export. The Bangladesh government has done well in overseeing the food situation and Dr. Abdur Razzaue, the minister of food is fully aware of the situation (The Daily Star, August 10). The Ministry of Agriculture in the hands of Mrs. Matia Chowdhury has also received high marks. But the hard-working and entrepre-
neurial Bangladeshi peasants dserve the most credit for this turnaround. Yet, there is no justification for complacency.
Meanwhile, after twenty years of lobbying, Russia has now been able to join WTO as its 156'h member, which will lower the tariffs thus creating possibility for buying its products at a lower rate than in the past. Another good news is that Russia has had a bumper production of rice. Compared to other grains, rice production worldwide is doing well. Hence, it may be wise to begin negotiation, before others jump in, to buy Russian rice for the rainy days ahead.
During the economic crisis of 2008, food prices shot up, which triggered food riots in Egypt. Mubarak used the military to bake bread to feed the needy. Even that did not stop the resentment that led to his removal in a couple of years. In January 2011, Mohamed Bouaziz resorted to self-immolation because he was prevented from running the sidewalk shop which was his source of livelihood.
Following the food crisis of 2008, often exemplified in "food riots" in Egypt and elsewhere, in The World Food Insecurity Report of 2009, FAO stated that the crisis was not new, rather it was "the sudden worsening of a structural crisis" that, over the past decades, denied hundreds of millions of people around the world access to adequate food for an active and healthy life. "The rapid increase in the number of hungry over the past two years, because of first the food and fuel crisis and now the economic crisis, reveals the fragility of present food systems" (p.39).
Despite decent rate of economic growth and significant signs of progress in social indicators in recent years, the structural situation has not changed a lot in Bangladesh. Hence, a plan of action must be in place to preempt the crisis before it unfolds.
The writer is Professor of Sociology at Zayed University, Abu Dhabi.