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PLEASURE IS ALL MINE

Ershad, a factor or an enigma?

Ershad has a dream to emerge as an alternative to Awami League and BNP; he boasts he is the potential third force. An octogenarian, mercurial in temperament, often enigmatic and topped up by a controversial track record, one tends to doubt if Ershad is in reckoning.

Shah Husain Imam
ERSHAD'S trip to India is being viewed in New Delhi with considerable political and diplomatic significance, an impression one gathers from media reports in the neighbouring country.
Whether it has been any relief for the embattled Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who heads a coalition heavily reliant on regional parties, better be left to imagination. But Ershad's visit couldn't have been timed better for Manmohan as he is a bit relaxed on Anna I lazare and Baba Ramdev. Since the two inadvertently gave a political colour to their corruption agenda with an intent to form political party, they have been drawing lesser crowds. Politics is so toxic!
Ershad, for his part, has got a break, and even a shine to his sheen. As one who tries to keep his nose ahead through difficult circumstances, he must have enjoyed the limelight in India.
He has already met with Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai followed by a talk with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. He might have by now met Sonia Gandhi, Congress president and United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson. It is the first official visit of a political leader not heading a government from any neighbouring country to India, perhaps in a few decades.
Recall that Manmohan Singh during his last trip to Dhaka invited opposition leader and BNP chief Khaleda Zia and Jatiya Party chief H.M. Ershad to visit India. Begum Khaleda Zia couldn't clearly be in a hurry to visit India as that would upset her anti-India vote bank.
Going by Indian media reports quoting Indian external affairs sources, India "has sought assistance from Jatiya Party chairman H.M. Ershad and leaders like him to "calm down" the BNP-Jamaat alliance diplomatically." The word "diplomatically" better be read as "politically."
A certain feeling is conveyed in view of an antiincumbency trend in Bangladesh, Indian government
erately forgetful of President Ershad declaring Islam as state religion of Bangladesh. Indian journalists were expressly puzzled over why as an overwhelmingly Muslim majority country Bangladesh would have the need for a state religion! Then you remember, during Rajiv Gandhi's tenure as PM a devastating flood struck Bangladesh, some Indian helicopters carrying aid into Bangladesh were sent back by the then Bangladesh government. This created a diplomatic spat between the two countries in the late '80s.
Largely freed up from the plethora of corruption cases stalking Ershad, he needed to visit India to raise
has called upon Ershad to keep the political situation steady till the next general election. Anandabazar Patrika couldn't have been clearer when it quoted relevant sources to say: "Right now, the Indian government does not want any deflection in the relation. That's why the meeting with Ershad is significant for India."
Although New Delhi says it is ready to work with any ruling party in the neighbouring country, its preference shows up.
In passing, one may not fail to discern India's capacity for pragmatism; see how India is being delib-
his political stock with the Awami League or the stature of Jatiya Party with an eye to the next general election. Actually, it served both ways. For India, Ershad is the man to talk to as a major ally of Mahajote government but outside of the mainstream ruling party to get a narrative on Bangladesh's political situation by way of weather taking or testing the waters.
This seems to have been particularly impelled by Ershad's strident criticism of the AL government and his occasional threats of contesting for all 300 seats on his own in the upcoming general election. Even
though Ershad has apparently linked such a step to BNP's non-participation in the polls, some people close to him like to believe that he might try it alone without being dovetailed to Awami League, even when BNP takes part in the election. He has a dream to emerge as an alternative to Awami League and BNP; he boasts he is the potential third force. An octogenarian, mercurial in temperament, often enigmatic and topped up by a controversial track record, one tends to doubt if Ershad is in reckoning.
At any rate, what is Ershad's political stock-in-trade? Going by history of national poll results, Ershad's Jatiya Party got 35 seats in parliament in 1991, 32 in 1996, 14 in 2001 (with JP factionalised) and 27 in 2008 elections, respectively. Its vote share is concentrated and ranges between 6.65 and 7.25% as against Jamaal's 4.28 to 4.55% and others' between 7% and 7.37%. What are Jatiya Party’s chances of a potluck in the upcoming elections if it should contest independently? Although he may clinch a larger clout in the next parliament, he couldn't go to power on his own.
Only in the event of a hung parliament emerging out of the next general election, Ershad could be a crucial factor in the formation of a viable government. Even for that to happen Ershad would have to present and lead a united Jatiya Party rid of its fissiparous tendencies.
The writer is Associate Editor, The Daily Star.
E-mail: husain.imam@thedaliystar.net