& çâÌæÚUæð´ ·¤è ¥ôÚU Îð¹Ùæ ÁæÚUè ÚU¹ð´ ¥ÍæüÌ ¥ÂÙð ÜÿØ ÂÚU ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´Ð ãæÚU Ù ×æÙð´, €UØô´ç·¤ ·¤æ× ·¤ÚUÙð âð ¥æÂ·¤ô ©gðàØ ·¤è Âýæç# ãôÌè ãñ ¥õÚU ÁèßÙ ·¤æ ¹æÜèÂÙ ÎêÚU ãôÌæ ãñÐ ÖÜð ãè ÁèßÙ ×ð´ ç·¤ÌÙè Öè ·¤çÆÙæ§ü €UØô´ Ù ¥æ°, çÁ™ææâæ ¥õÚU ©ˆâæã ÕÙæ° ÚU¹ð´Ð ŠØæÙ ÚU¹ð´, ÜÿØ ã×ðàææ ¥æÂ·Ô¤ Âæâ ãôÌð ãñ´ çÁ‹ãð´ ÂæÙð ·Ô¤ çÜ° ÂýØæâ ¥æÂ ·¤Öè Öè àæéM¤ ·¤ÚU â·¤Ìð ãñ´Ð

Exporting rice

M. Abdul Latif Mondal
WHILE presiding over an inter-ministerial meeting on food and poultry sectors held at his ministry on July 29, Finance Minister A.M.A. Muhith said that the government was planning to export rice, and added that although the final decision had not been made, the market for rice export would be explored. Agriculture Minister Begum Matia Chowdhury, Food Minister M. Abdur Razzaque, amongst others, were present in the meeting. In this article, rice will mean coarse rice.
The arguments put forward in favour of exporting rice are: one, the country is now much more stable in its production and able to meet the domestic demand; and two, the government is trying to boost the market price of rice from Tk.25 per kg, which is less than the production cost of Tk.26.5 per kg to Tk.28; and three, the rice export will start on a small scale.
The government has not yet made public the total quantity of rice (aus, aman and boro) produced in the country in the year 2011-12. In a report of June 4, the Financial Express said that the rice production target {aman 1.33 crore ton, boro 1.87 crore ton and aus 27 lakh ton) for 2011-12 wouldn't be achieved. The production of aman and aus will miss their target. The total production is expected to stand at 3. 38 crore tons. This will mean shortfall of 9 lakh tons or so against the target of 3.47 crore tons.
According to the Sixth Five Year Plan (2011-15), the per capita intake of rice is 477 gm per person per day for rural areas and 389 gm for urban areas. According to this calculation, the yearly requirement of rice for the present population in the country stands at 2.60 crore plus tons. After deducting around 50 lakh tons for handling loss, feed and seed, the total rice available for human consumption is 2.88 crore tons. This leaves a surplus 28 lakh tons or so.
The finance minister has said that "the rice export will start on a small scale." Let's say, the government wants to export 10 lakh tons of rice, which leaves a surplus of 18 lakh tons or so. Even the export of 10 lakh tons will be risky. Aman is a nature-dependent
crop. We didn't have natural calamities like devastating floods or severe drought during the last two-three aman seasons. We are uncertain about such natural calamities this year.
We had seen in 2007 how the countrywide floods and the cyclone Sidr on November 15 of that year in the coastal districts seriously affected aman production. Aman production stood at 96.62 lakh tons only against the target of 1. 30 crore tons. Further, it appears from some newspaper reports that droughtlike condition is prevailing in some districts (Thakurgaon, Natore etc.) of the northern region, which is generally known as the granary of the country. If this condition persists for two weeks or more, the aman plantation in these districts will be seriously affected. This will adversely affect the aman production target. The government will have no other way but to go for importing rice if there are devastating floods or severe drought during this aman season.
The finance minister has said that the government is trying to boost the market price of rice from Tk.25 per kg to Tk.28. Let's see as to what extent his statement is supported by the current prices of rice released by the government agencies. A visit to the website of the TCB shows that on August 3, the price of coarse rice in the markets of the capital varied between Tk.27 and Tk.32 per kg. Again, a visit to the website of the Food Division shows that on July 17, the price of coarse rice in the wholesale market of the capital wasTk.30 to Tk.32.70 per kg while its price in the retail market was Tk.32 to Tk.34 a kg.
The argument for boosting local price of rice to benefit the marginal farmers doesn't tally with the ground reality. Do the marginal farmers have rice now to sell in the market? They sell their produce at the beginning of the harvesting season to pay back their loan and meet the urgent needs of their families. A number of studies have shown that most of the marginal farmers enter into the market as buyers after two months or so of the harvesting period. Boosting rice price in the local market through rice export will sim-
ply benefit the hoarders and big farmers. The GAB has protested the idea of exporting rice saying that there is no guarantee that the export of rice will benefit the farmers. It has also questioned the wisdom of the government to go for exporting rice, which is the staple food of the country.
The Unites States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in July that the world wheat production this year (2012-13) will fall by 17 million tons and stand at 677.6 million tons against 694. 6 million tons last year due to hot weather in the EU, Australia, Canada, USA, South America and the countries of the former Soviet Union. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim recently said that wheat prices have jumped more than 50% and corn prices more than 45% since mid-June, with dry condi-
tions in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, excessively wet weather in Europe, and a below average start to the Indian monsoon season adding to global crop worries. Our yearly requirement of wheat is 40 lakh tons plus against domestic production of less than 10 lakh tons. So, our yearly import of wheat stands at more than 30 lakh tons. Increase of wheat price in international by 50% or more will mean an additional financial burden for the country. We may consider using rice for public food distribution system programmes to reduce the total demand for wheat.
To conclude, the government must give a serious thought before taking a final decision on rice export.
The writer is a former secretary. E-mail: Iatifm43@gmail.com