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North Korea: Change, no change

William Ciioong
IN the past few weeks, winds of change have appeared to be sweeping across North Korea, a country sealed from the rest of the world.
In his time, the late North Korean leader Kim Jong II portrayed an austere image, with little contact with ordinary North Koreans. In fact, North Korean watchers believe that he had spoken publicly only once, in 1992, when he shouted "Glory to the heroic soldiers of the Korean People's Army!"
In contrast, Kim Jong Un -- who took over North Korea following the death of his father in December — has taken a different tack.
In April, he made a historic 20-minute speech to the North Korean people. He has visited fun fairs, spoken to kindergarten children and even presided over a concert involving Disney characters and girl groups dressed in Western-style strapless dresses and short skirts.
Since April, he has also urged North Korea's light industries, the Korean Workers' Party (KWP) and even a cancer research institute to be cognisant of "global trends" and adhere to "global standards," South Korean news agency Yonhap reported, citing North Korean media.
The most important piece in this apparent wave of reform happened last week, when he dismissed vice-marshal Ri Yong Ho, the army chief of staff who had been appointed by Kim Jong 11 in 2010 to act as a mentor to the younger Kim. According to Pyongyang, the dismissal was due to Ri's poor health. But not many North Korea watchers bought that.
A well-placed source told Reuters that the younger Kim could have sought to assert his authority over the military. The source added that the cabinet had created a special bureau to take control of the decaying economy from the military, which under Kim's father was given pride of place in running the country.
John Delury and Chung In Moon, two North Korea watchers at Yonsei University, said that the positive changes should be a basis for America's increased engagement with the country.
"Today, North Korea stands at the crossroads of sticking with 'military-first' politics or striving to become a normal, integrated state under new leadership," they wrote in Foreign Policy.
Some have suggested that Kim's new-found focus on the North Korean people's welfare could see him implement Chinese-style economic reforms.
This is possible. Contrary to popular depictions by the Western media, North Korea is actually more "normal" than often thought, argues University of Southern California (Los Angeles) Professor David Kang. This can be demonstrated in what appears to be squabbling in its domestic policies, he writes in International Security, a Harvard journal.
In 2001, Kim Jong II was so impressed by the "cataclysmic change" in Shanghai and China's special economic zones, that he castigated a top KWP official.
To counter his interpretation, the KWP argued in an editorial that the North Korean people are "overflowing with firm determination to advance toward the independent road, the socialist road, which they selected to the end."
All that said, however, one cannot be too optimistic about the changes happening in North Korea. History shows that North Korea’s dabbling with economic reform and an opening up to the global community has a "two steps forward, three steps back" quality about it.
In February this year, the younger Kim sealed an agreement to suspend North Korea's alleged nuclear activities in return for food aid, only to renege on the deal in April by carrying out a controversial missile test.
Moreover, it might well be that the younger Kim's show of opening up is just that --a mere show. More specifically, he could be fashioning himself to be the contemporary reincarnation of his grandfather Kim II Sung, who is much beloved by North Koreans. After all, the younger Kim is said to be the "spitting image" of his grandfather.
Moreover, it is unlikely that China -- as much as it wants North Korea to go down the same journey of economic reforms that it undertook in the 1980s -- would want Pyongyang
to walk down that route too far.
A more open North Korea would raise the possibility of reunification with South Korea, a move that could well put US and South Korean forces up to the border with China.
In the end, the dilemma that the younger Kim faces remains the same as the one his father confronted -- retreat from Kim Jong Il's strategy7 of confrontation and brinksmanship in return for normalisation of relations with the US, or use North Korea's stash of nuclear weapons as a drive for security for other means.
For now, it remains fairly clear that Kim Jong Un has chosen the latter strategy.
Dr. Leonid Petrov, a Korean scholar at the University of Sydney, has it right. North Korea has demonstrated "superficial signs of prosperity," such as the Disney-themed concert and the promise of a younger leadership, he told Australia’s SBSTV. But the core of the regime remains essentially the same.
"So many horrible things were perpetrated during the 65 years of Kim's dynasty rule in North Korea that Kim Jong Un cannot reform the country, cannot open it up, cannot democratise it. I'm rather pessimistic about the developments in North Korea. It looks like it will continue to change in form but not in content." © The Straits Times. All rights reserved. Reprinted by arrangement with Asia News Network.