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Nepal's political scene
Nepal has gone through a rapid and unprecedented transformation in its political history. For the first time, the Himalayan nation has turned into a secular democratic Republic.
After four years of work and $1.6 billion, Nepal should have announced its new constitution at midnight on May 27. But it failed.
Prime Minister Bhattarai (Maoist Party) announced fresh election on November 22 for the parliament, reportedly without consulting the president.
The Nepali public is bitterly disappointed by the failure of the new constitution. Street protests and counter-protests are becoming commonplace. Opinion polls, to the extent that they're reliable, suggest that most people blame the Maoists.
The parliament also acted as the
constituent assembly to frame a new constitution. Leaders of other political parties criticised the prime minister for creating vacuum in power in the country, arguing that he should not have dissolved the parliament, although he had no alternative but to dissolve the constituent assembly after May 27 under the direction of the Supreme Court.
Three days after the dissolution of the constituent assembly/parliament, President Ram Baran Yadav hinted that Baburam Bhattarai was a caretaker prime minister, and cautioned him not to go about it alone.
Observers said that in a very carefully worded statement, the president used diplomatic language to suggest that he had a greater responsibility in the absence of the Constituent Assembly. He thanked the members of the cabinet, hinting that their role was over after the constituent assembly and parliament were dissolved.
The president has asked the prime minister not to try to go about it alone until elections, announced for November 22, and has said that as a caretaker government it should only implement day-to-day decisions. The statement also suggests that the president's office would be forced to be more active if Bhattarai tries to rule by himself.
On May 29, the president met members of the NC, UML and other parties who had been calling for Prime Minister Bhattarai to step down immediately. He asked them to try to work together with the Maoists, suggesting that they should form a government of national consensus.
Although the opposition continues to protest against the present government, the new development is being seen as a result of informal agreement reached among the parties at President Ram Baran Yadav's residence. President Yadav had invited leaders of all major parties to initiate a dialogue among the parties and find a way out of the current political impasse.
After the meeting, UML leader Madhav Nepal said: "We have agreed to work together to find a solution and form a national government soon." It is learned that the meeting took place in a cordial environment and the leaders refrained from the past blame games.
The reasons for the sudden death of the parliament are unclear, but are reportedly related to a growing split within the Maoist Party.
The more moderate Maoist group, led by Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, favours consolidation of power through democratic means, but is opposed by Mohan Baidya's hard-line faction.
Dahal reportedly argues that the constitution should be ethnicity-sensitive so that lower castes, such as the Jan Jatis (ethnic tribals) and Dalits (untouchables per the Hindu caste system) who form the core of Maoist support, get constitutional recognition.
Dahal recognises the realities of power, and wants good ties with neighbouring India as well as for the Maoist rebels to fully integrate with the professional army. Baidya doesn't like either. He believes power grows out of the barrel of a gun, his only solution being revolt.
That means that the split is likely to complicate politics in the country as Maoist combatants who owe allegiance to the Baidya faction, and only recently integrated into the army, could desert.
It appears from reports that no political party today stands united and that they are deeply divided by clash of personalities within the parties. Many parties have fragmented significantly. The Madhesi parties have splintered from 4 into as many as 13 parties.
They do not appear to be ready for November elections.
Another factor which tends to destabilise the political scene is that the Terai region, a narrow strip of fertile plains bordering India, which is home to the densely-populated agricultural heart of Nepal, has been a source of instability since the end of the civil war. It began as a protest by the Madhesi community against the hill tribes-people. The Madhesi are a religiously mixed group living in the country's lowlands. They have historically been under-represented in poli-
tics and in key institutions like the military, despite the fact that they comprise around 48% of the population.
In contrast, the hill dwellers enjoj' a much larger share of political representation, creating tensions between the two communities. The historically disadvantaged Madhesis want their rights guaranteed.
The Maoists won a plurality (but not a clear majority) of seats in the parliament in 2008, but it is doubtful whether they can secure a majority again. While commentators are occupied with the outcome of elections in November, the Maoist interim government recently sought the help of the Nepali army, which says it will act according to the constitution.
A statement from the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned that "Nepal has entered an uncertain constitutional and political period. The government and the political leaders, as well as leaders of various communities, need to demonstrate the courage and wisdom to come together to address the challenges the nation faces."
Nepal is looking forward to an election and we all hope that Nepali politics will return to an era of political stability.
The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.