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Conundrum in Cairo

Ashfaqur Rahman
LAST week in Cairo, a historic ceremony took place. Mr. Mohammed Morsi of the Freedom and Justice Party of Egypt (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood), was sworn in as the new Egyptian president. With this swearing-in, Egypt has pole-vaulted into a new political age.
Never before in history had the people of that country had the pleasure of choosing their president. From the Pharaohs to the last dictator Hosni Mubarak, it has been their fate to be ruled by people who had either inherited power or had usurped power. The people of this "cradle of civilisation" had never been enfranchised and had the ability to bestow state power. Yet there are many Egyptians who are sceptical and think this event is not any way seminal. They know that the collapse of the last authoritarian regime in Egypt does not mean the ushering in of a golden age of democracy
Why are they apprehensive? This is because the real power still remains in the hands of the military. Only three months back, at a cost of 3 billion Egyptian pounds, 30 million voters went to the polls to elect a free parliament. The Muslim Brotherhood secured a majority of seats there. But the military disbanded the parliament soon after the elections. They decided that a constituent assembly should first be elected to draft a new Constitution for Egypt.
So even if the last dictator has been sent to oblivion, the body and soul of the deposed dictator remain. The military also dominates the economy. "It controls between 10% or maybe even 30 % of the economy. No one knows because it is all a secret." Thus mere election of a president does not wish away the machinery that dictates everything in Egypt. Yet there is a silver lining. With the president being freely elected, there is now hope that this corrupt political system will slowly be replaced by a representative civilian rule.
Egypt has always been considered as the centre of the Arab world. Democracy, if it succeeds there, will capture the heart and soul of the Arabs everywhere. Recall the songs, the music, the TV shows that Egypt has produced and enchanted the Arabs all over with. This is more so in the realm of ideas.
Major political movements in the past century in the Middle East had begun in Egypt. It was this country that had given the idea of Pan Arabism. All Arabs, it said, should unify politically. Again, it was Egypt that spawned the idea of Islamic fundamentalism. It inspired impressionable young men and women to join in order to relive the great ideals of Islam.
The West was not humoured. In fact it was alarmed. They encouraged the Egyptian dictators to stymie the fundamentalist movement. But the movement spread under their shadows. The election of Morsi, who belonged to this movement, as president validates this fact. But the movement in many respects has also morphed over time. Today, it is more in the business of creating jobs, dishing out welfare and supporting social inclusiveness than in changing the way people live and pray. But what matters now to its followers are how they are governed and the quality of governance.
President Morsi's first task would be to curb the powers of the military. His relations with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) are at best courteous. The Scaf, realising that its days are numbered had, just before the presidential elec-
tions, issued a supplementary constitutional declaration that sliced off some of the powers of any future president. As it stands today, the president of Egypt cannot even declare war without the clearance of the armed forces. Morsi needs to change all that and restore presidential supremacy.
Morsi has three other equally important challenges before him. There is the matter of national reconciliation. Egypt, after his election, is a divided country. Just over 51% of the electorate voted for him. His opponent Shafiq, who represented in many ways the interests of the old Egyptian order received over 48% of the votes. Thus, Morsi's challenge would be to bring 12 million Egyptians who voted for his opponent round to his way of thinking. He has to build bridges and embrace the liberals, the Coptic Christians and other minorities that had opposed him in the election. Morsi has to be "a president for all Egyptians."
The other challenge before Morsi is that of internal security. Since the agitations in Cairo's
Tahrir Square there has been a dramatic rise in killings, abductions, car thefts and illegal possessions of arms. The police are a compromised force there. They had served the last dictator Mubarak and are suspected by the people. Morsi has to reform the police force and install an honest and professional one.
A major challenge before Morsi is the domestic economy. About 40% of Egyptians now live under the poverty line. There is very little foreign investment. The IMF and the World Bank have withheld $3 billion as they want to be sure that the political situation stabilises before releasing the funds. Foreign reserves have dwindled because of huge imports. Factories are closing and strikes are frequent. Morsi will have to revive the economy before the people get disillusioned.
In foreign relations, Morsi also faces indomitable challenges. Egypt’s relations with the Gulf countries are strained. The sheikhdoms suspect that the influence of Muslim Brotherhood would spread in their region. Morsi has to quickly allay their fears as Egypt has thousands of well paid Egyptians working there and sending much needed remittance.
Another area of concern for President Morsi is Egypt's future relations with the US and Israel. He is already under pressure from within his country to rescind the peace treaty with Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood is on record in criticising President Mobarak who supported the treaty and was subservient to the interest of the US and Israel in the region. Morsi has to maintain good relations with both Israel and the US without hurting his own people.
But Morsi possesses a great advantage. He enjoys widespread support of the international community. From Iran to the US all governments have welcomed his election. The only country that has not done so is Israel. It is waiting and watching. It will not accept cancellation of the peace treaty and will not be happy if Egypt embraces Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. Morsi now needs to leverage on this international goodwill to get on with the rebuilding of Egypt. He has little time and a short political fuse. He has to engineer the future of this ancient land.
For Egypt the future has already arrived. But it is just not evenly distributed.
The writer is a former Ambassador and a commentator on contemporary issues. E-mail: ashfaque303@gmail.com