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Myanmar and the narrative of democracy

Shawon Shyla
IS the victory of opposition in byelections, particularly Aung San Suu Kyi, seriously implying that the military junta of Myanmar, one of the most brutal, oppressive regimes of today’s world is going to 'ease its grips’ or allow an actual 'political transition' started last year after decades of repression? The narrative says that the mass people of Myanmar are against the military dictatorship. It is being told, Myanmar is no longer an isolated tyranny but a part of widespread rising in which the West's moral integrity is going to be tested also. As the West has been walking a tightrope of contradictory principles, it must support this victory gently. That means the West must not sponsor them but at the same time must act to prevent the repressive regimes from crushing them. This is a complex maneuver. The failure to support the rising will be a betrayal of fundamental moral principles. Leaving aside whether the narrative is accurate, it particularly appeals to Europeans with their ideological preference for 'soft power.' Self-imposed isolation has not only snoozed possible change over a decade- that with more engagement, Myanmar could have opened and risen like Vietnam has. The whole situation not only deprived the world's poorest country but also pushed the government into the arms of neighbours with bigger bankrolls and the worst human rights record.
Historic by-election has given opposition members a greater voice in lawmaking. Whether the minority representation will result in long-term government reform in terms of filibuster-proof control of the parliament or not is the concern from now on. Compared with the futures of Iran and North Korea, Myanmar’s people suffer from the combined curse of abundant natural resources and geopolitical proximity to China. Surely this victory of NLD has ignited the spirit of democracy and freedom. But, sadly, Myanmar, wedged between
unscrupulous India and China, ever ready to prop up any form of authoritarian rule as long as their interests are saved, the relevance of Suu Kyi is unpredictable.
Will democracy be a myth for Myanmar?
National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi ,the Noble laureate did not lose at all by not contesting on November 7 sham election held by the junta in Myanmar but the junta themselves .The people of Myanmar knew that the election was to legalise the dictatorship. It was kleptocracy, not democracy. Myanmar has been ruled by a 'revolutionary' council headed by the general, who nationalized and brought under government control all aspects of society-business, media and production. Real democracy means possibility of losing power, transferring all posts to civilians and returning of refugees who fled Myanmar when the junta had come to power. ASEAN & the China are praising this by-election as a next step towards democracy, People hope this victory will lead to real democracy but given the junta's history, it does not seem likely. The ability of parliament to make significant changes to any proposed decision of NLD should be watched closely.
The future of crisis ridden Myanmar appears to be full of challenges and difficulties. The political elites of the country have to give priority to good governance, prudent policy making, efficient conflict management in case of ethnic issues and bipartisanship in the largest interest of country's secu-rity. A cease-fire agreement has already been reached with the Shan State Army (South) in eastern Burma, but peace talks with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) have proven to be one of the most difficult, despite an president oreder for the military to end all offensive operations in last month.
Geo-strategic position
Maintaining the status quo is very much in the interest of Myanmar's neighborhood friends-of-convenience .Undoubtedly, the only “friends” the generals need concern
themselves with. No wonder that the junta can relax while they playfully dawdle with their laughable perversion of democracy. This stance surely makes it easier for China to exploit the resources of the people of Myanmar, India to crack down on its unstable borderlands, and Britain to resume selling weapons to the military; but there is no inkling of the change one can gloss over. Slightly free is still almost entirely oppressed.
Will the realpolitik game be ended up? The military in Myanmar regard themselves as a class apart from their own citizenry. Government has released its hold on many of its state-owned monopolies, which means that Myanmar's economy has an opportunity to grow competitively on a local level. The retirement of old generals means the arrival of new faces and therefore new ideas in the military, whose hold on Myanmar is still very strong. It is no wonder China supported the election; Myanmar's economy is becoming more and more like China's in nature which means China's investments will not go to waste.
The election itself means little because these changes are inevitable. The victory of Suu Kyi is an epitome of hope for the people of the world who are living under tyrannical commands. Change is on the card in Asia over the next decade as progress escalates and that is when pro-democratic efforts struggling under military regimes gain momentum and bring change. It will take time but true democracy is the future to a better world.
The hard road ahead Like any politician, Suu Kyi will face the challenge of having made a set of promises that are not mutually supportive. Much of her challenge boils down to problems that she needs to solve and that she wants the West help on, but the West is not prepared to provide the type and amount of help she needs .There is no sign that the junta's main international allies are becoming embarrassed. China is not going to give the junta its Gorbachev-Honecker moment. All that leaves are appeals to the better nature of the junta to relinquish power voluntarily and getting the armed forces to switch loyalties or at least stand
aside. There is an old saying in the subcontinent, "softly softly catchee monkee" and following this principal is more likely to work than subversive action and open conflict. Everyone hopes Aung San Suu Kyi would manage to be an agent for positive change in Myanmar and would not end up an ex-figurehead who goes on speaking tours, is admired, feted, and basically sidelined.
Beginning of a new era: Bangladesh perspective
Bangladesh Myanmar relation began officially from Januaryl3,1972 the date on which Myanmar accorded recognition to Bangladesh as a sovereign nation. The history of Bangladesh
Myanmar relation during 1972-2012 has experienced ups and downs in their bilateral relations. The major of their relation is economic co-operation. However, after a promising beginning, trade has not risen to significant level although there are potentials for trade expansion. The reciprocity with which the government of Myanmar has consistently reacted to Bangladesh's policies has consolidated traditional friendly ties. Maritime border demarcation issue has been resolved through good will and now comes the issue of implementation. One important element of this change of policy could be opening trade and transportation networks with Bangladesh, both as destination and as transit to the rest of south Asia and vice versa. However Rohingya refugee issue must be resolved satisfactorily for relations to be fully warm, co-operative and meaningful. In fact, opening trade, travel and commerce across the border could go a long way towards improving the relationship. No doubt, relation would be somewhat more productive if Myanmar returns to democratic governance.
The writer is Assistant Director (Training), PSCDP, Power Division, Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.