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Lost oil billions leave Sudan's economy reeling

AFP, Khartoum
Sudan has lost billions of dollars in oil receipts since the south gained independence last year, and is plagued by soaring prices and a weakening currency, with no economic solution in sight for the bankrupt nation, analysts say.
"The situation is deteriorating further and further," and the economy is in crisis, says University of Khartoum economist Mohamed Eljack Ahmed. "Life has become very difficult"
Sudan's oil exports, which began in the late 1990s, fuelling growth and investment, effectively stopped in July when the south became independent after an overwhelming vote that followed decades of civil war.
Prior to partition, about three-quarters of crude production came from the south and accounted for more than 85 percent of Khartoum's export earnings, which reached $7.5 billion in the first half of 2011, according to the World Bank.
"They've lost that (oil) income. It's goneforgood," an international econ-omistsaid, declining to be identified.
South Sudan has to use the north's pipelines and export terminal to sell its crude on the international market but the two sides have failed to agree on compensation owed to Khartoum for the use of its infrastructure.
Southern oil represented more than one third of the Sudanese government's revenues and its biggest source of hard currency, and Ahmed says the regime nowhas very few alternatives.
Without the petro-dollars, there is a severe shortage of foreign currency, pushing prices higher for imported goods used in domestic production, as well as for essentials like medicine, Ahmed explained.
"The prices of drugs are now increasing dramatically, ” he said.
According to official media, inflation hit 19 percent in January, and analysts say it could go higher.
Lacking other immediate ways to finance its deficit, economists say the government may resort to printing money, causing more inflation and further weakening the Sudanese pound.
Even before the loss of southern oil, Sudan's foreign exchange reserves were less than half the recommended standard to pay for three months' worth of imports, the international economist said.
The government maintains a fixed exchange rate at about 2.7 pounds for one US dollar but the black market rate has been well above 4.0 since late last year. More recently ithas hovered around 5.0.
"Nowadays we are all buying dollars," in expectation of later profits on the further weakening of the pound, said one money trader work-ing illegally on a downtown street.
"There is a shortage of dollars in the market," said another dealer, whose clients include importers in need of the cash.
With the government tightly rationing foreign currency, even well-connected businessmen can't get it through official channels, said
the international economist.
Finance Minister Ali Mahmud al-Rasul said last week that Sudan would ramp up exports to acquire hard currency and bring down the exchange rate.
Khartoum aims to roughly double its truncated oil production this year while earning $2.5 billion from gold and targeting higher exports of cotton, sugar and other commodities.
But economists say the plan seems unworkable in the short term.
Ahmed says agricultural infrastructure, once the country's economic mainstay, has collapsed and neither farmers nor industrialists have an incentive to operate.
Meanwhile, the budget deficit is estimated at about $8 billion between 2011 and 2015, said the international economist, who sees the economy contracting by 4.5 percentthisyear.
Roughly $38 billion in foreign debt, along with US economic sanctions, limits Sudan's access to externalfinancing.
Under an emergency three-year programme announced in June, Khartoum plans to cut spending and widen the tax base.
Economists say spending reductions are difficult given the extremely large ouday on the security forces, which are battling rebellions in several states bordering South Sudan.
For political reasons the government cannot broaden the tax base because of exemptions given to "certain persons, certain families and organisations," Ahmed said.