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Myanmar's by-elections key to reform process

Larry Jagan
Although only a relatively small proportion of seats are being contested in the by-elections the results will have a significant effect on the country's fragile reform process, according to analysts and diplomats who closely follow events in Myanmar.***
CAMPAIGNING for the forthcoming elections is already in full-swing. Myanmar's prodemocracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is contesting a seat in the parliamentary polls scheduled for April 1, has already made several forays into the countryside, including touring parts of the constituency on the outskirts of Yangoon in which she is running.
Much is riding on the outcome of these forthcoming polls, and more particularly the way in which these by-elections are conducted, though initial signs are not encouraging. The election is going to be a real test of strength between the liberals who support the president's reform agenda and the hardliners, who seem intent on de-railing the reform process despite publicly declaring their support for democratic reform.
Tens of thousands of supporters and well-wishers have flocked her route on these occasions to glimpse the iconic figure, who has spent much of the last twenty years under house arrest, often in virtual solitary confinement. Everywhere, her reception has been the same, adoring crowds yelling their support for her. "She's been treated like a pop star," said freelance journalist Min Thu, who has been following her entourage. "The excitement is overwhelming as people want to see her, wave to her, and for those close enough, to touch her."
"Now we can have democracy," said Aye Win, a retired school teacher in Yangoon. "When she is elected she will help end poverty and repression in the country," she told The Daily Star by email.
Although only a relatively small proportion of seats are being contested in the by-elections --to replace MPs who have taken up ministerial posts --the results will have a significant effect on the country's fragile reform process, according to analysts and diplomats who closely follow events in Myanmar.
"Aung San Suu Kyi's decision to run for parliament is an extremely important move for the future of the country," Professor Sean Turnell, a Myanmar specialist at Macquarie University in the Australia who recently visited the country, told The Daily Star. "She is uniquely placed to drive reform forward and bring on board a substantial constituency to help maintain that momentum.”
The leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) is contesting from Kawhmu, a poor rural district on the southern outskirts of the former capital Yangoon -- the country's largest city and the Nobel Peace laureate's hometown.
Her party is fielding candidates in almost all the 48 seats that are vacant -- forty in the lower house, six in the upper house and two in provisional assemblies. While this represents less than 15% of the seats in the national assembly -- 440 seats in the lower house and 224 in the upper house -- the results are less important than the way in which these byelections are conducted.
"We hope the government keeps its word and allows a free and fair election," a NLD spokesman, Nyan Win told The Daily Star after the NLD had registered to contest the polls. All eyes are now on these by-elections; something the Myanmar government is painfully aware of.
US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton stressed the need for these by-elections to be free and fair when she met government leaders in December in the capital Naypyidaw. She told the speaker of the lower house, U Shwe Mann, that this was a perquisite for Washington to seriously consider reducing sanctions against the country, according to diplomats in her entourage.
Since then, the mantra has been constantly repeated -- by the UN human rights envoy Tomas Ojea Quintana on his mission last month, and this week by the German development minister and a European Commissioner -- that any consideration of rolling back sanctions was dependent on the byelections being free and fair.
There is no doubt that the liberals in the government want these elections to be as free and fair as possible -- it is essential for their long-term game plan. President Thein Sein, the speaker of the lower house Shwe Mann met with the chairman of the Election Commission Tin Aye a few months ago --before Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD agreed to contest -- and agreed that the by-elections would be free and fair. Even if it meant the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) took a severe drubbing in the poll.
"We have taken the necessary measures so that the upcoming by-elections will be free, fair and credible," Shwe Mann boldly told EU Development Commissioner Andris Piebalgs, speaking through an interpreter, recently.
This is nevertheless going to be difficult, because it is the USDP leaders -- who are mainly hardliners -- who will be campaigning in the election, even though Shwe Mann is nominally the head of the party.
So far the signs are ominous, and there is growing evidence that the hardliners are trying to scupper the NLD's campaign. Some senior USDP leaders have instructed government officials to block the NLD's electoral campaign in any way they can. This was already evident a few weeks ago when Aung San Suu Kyi wanted to speak to her supporters in Mandalay -- the EC gave her permission to speak but refused approval to use the main stadium there to address the rally.
The signs that this is going to be a dirty campaign were even evident before her first trip to the Dawei industrial zone area in southern Myanmar. In a clear preview of things to come, former fisheries minister and USDP centred executive member, Maung Maung Thein, warned residents in the area in mid-January that if they did not vote for the USDP they would lose their jobs, according to sources in the area.
More ominously though, he instructed the local officials to make sure they manipulated the vote in same way that the November polls were rigged, senior military sources told The Daily Star. Maung Maung Thein has considerable business interests in the area -- especially in the fishing industry --though he has also been accused of colossal corruption.
All along the main road in Aung San Suu Kyi's constituency there are big colourful bill-boards proclaiming to voters that the roads were being repaired by the USDP. In many places throughout the country USDP is taking credit for infrastructure projects, medical centres and schools, built by the government. This may not sway voters from electing Aung San Suu Kyi -- but may have a greater influence in other parts of the country.
The pro-democracy leader is not anxious to cry foul --at least just yet. "We have certainly come across a few hitches in the last couple of weeks with regards the campaign of the NLD," she told reporters recently. "We hope that these will be sorted out because free and fair elections depend on how a campaign goes, not just how people are allowed to cast their vote on the day itself."
"The problem is access to resources, and when so much is at stake there will be setbacks," said Aung Naing Oo — a former activist and now development specialist who has just returned to Burma for the first time in 20 years. "There will always obstacles to democratic change in the short-term, especially the danger of vote-buying," he told The Daily Star.
The problem is that at the local level government officials' allegiances will be to the local mafia and cronies, said a Myanmarese journalist who declined to be identified. And they are likely to be swayed by the local party bosses, rather than the president's edicts.
Even if the NLD wins most of the seats it contests, it will be a minority party in the parliament. More than 70% of the parliamentary seats are already held by the pro-military MPs who belong to the USDP, including a quarter of the MPs who are serving soldiers directly nominated by the army chief.
"Even if she is the leader of a minority party in parliament, Aung San Suu Kyi will be a potent symbol for national reconciliation and democratic change," said Nyo Myint — a political analyst and pro-democracy activist close to the NLD leader based in Chiang Mai. "The lady is showing her trust in the government," he said.
Her electoral victory -- provided the campaign and vote is relatively free and fair --is likely to give the reform process a boost, and provide a valuable basis of support for the liberals. "Aung San Suu Kyi is uniquely placed to cut through the divisions in Burmese society, some of which are opposed to change or at least want to slow it," said Sean Turnell. "At a time when many log jams threaten the reform momentum, this could be the singular event that marks the tipping point."
The writer is a former Current Affairs Editor, Asia, BBC World Service.