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Burma's reform process in the balance

LarryJagan
Everything is being tossed into the arena in this silent, dirty war. The hardliners are using every hiccup and problem to hound the liberals. The failure of the peace talks with the Kachin is strengthening the hardliners' hands./****
BURMA'S reform process is in the balance as the hardliners and liberals in government are locked in a bitter power struggle. Change in Burma remains fragile, despite encouraging signs and growing goodwill towards President Thein Sein internationally. So far there has been a lot of good intentions, but thus has only produced limited practical change, according to analysts.
The reason for that is that the liberal-minded ministers who support Thein Sein and the reform agenda are being cramped by the persistent pressure from the hardliners, led by the vice president Tin Aung Myint Oo, who are intent on de-railing the reform process.
The case of the release of political prisoners highlights the bitter battle being waged behind the scenes. Government ministers, advisers and even the president himself had promised the international community that the political prisoners would be freed as soon as possible. The speaker of the lower house U Shwe Mann hinted to the US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton on her visit to Burma last December that they should all be free before the end of the year.
Now many have been freed, including the high-profile activists from the 88 students group — Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi — the Shan political leader Khun Htun Oo, the Buddhist monk Gambira and the former prime minister and intelligence chief Khin Nyunt. But many still remain in prison as the power struggle at the top of the regime intensifies in the lead up to the forthcoming by-elections in April.
Before their release on January 13, there had been hints that most of the political prisoners would be on January 4 — Independence Day — and February 12 — Union Day. But when only a handful of political prisoners were let out and the sentences of other prisoners reduced --there was widespread dismay amongst the liberal circles in Burma. President Thein Sein appeared to have been cowed again by the hardliners. Aung Min — the railways minister who has been leading the peace process and ceasefire talks with many of the rebel ethnic groups — was visibly depressed by the fresh hold-up, according to one of his close personnel friends. The speaker Shwe Mann virtually made a public apology-
The fate of the political prisoners is a microcosm of the broader power struggle that continues to dog the reform process. Although the president is the one who finally decides who will be released and when, he is constantly walking a tight-rope, trying to build a consensus around his "gentleman's agenda" and not provoke the hardliners in his Cabinet.
Now news of what happened has emerged. At the December 30 meeting of the powerful National Defense and Security Council — the eleven member body chaired by Thein Sein and commander-in-chief of the military General Min Aung Hlaing discusses security and other major issues of national concern — the topic of the political prisoners was heatedly debated.
The country's leading hardliner, Vice-president Tin Aung Myint Oo strongly disagreed with releasing political prisoners before the by-elections [to be held on April 1] as they could disrupt them. Apparently the former second most powerful general, Mating Aye has been constantly campaigning behind the scenes to prevent the political activists, including Khin Nyunt and his military intelligence officers, being freed.
U Shwe Mann — the third top military man in the old regime -- has been at the forefront of trying to get the political prisoners released as soon as possible. At the meeting he argued that if the government did not keep it's promise to free them, Aung San Suu Kyi and the National league for Democracy (NLD) might decide not to contest the elections. The interior minister Ko Ko -- another former general — supported the immediate release of the prisoners. Some of the others suggested it was important not to release political prisoners, especially Min Ko Naing and the other 88 Generation leaders, until at least after all the candidates for the by-elections had officially registered.
The hardliners' greatest fear was that the 88 group would form a party and run in the elections. So in the face of this strident opposition, the president dithered. In the end only a handful of activists were released for Independence Day; though two weeks later a significant batch of high-profile detainees including the hardliners bet noir, the 88 student leaders and Khin Nyunt.
President's apparent volte-face was brought about by the reformers' successful peace talks with the ethnic minorities, especially the Karen National Union (KNU). This emboldened Thein Sein and gave him the room to maneuver. Immediately after the KNU signed the truce and an end to hostilities with the Burmese government delegation -- led by the railways minister Aung Min --on the January 12 the railways minister rang Thein Sein, according to sources at the meeting. This was what the President was waiting for; four hours later he announced the major prisoner release and signed off on freeing most of the high-profile prisoners.
That's how fragile the situation is, stressed sources in the Burmese government. The hardliners have been dogging the president and the liberals all along the way, making it as hard as possible for the reform process to proceed unhindered. They have been pushing for the prisoner release to be delayed until after the by-elections -- or at least to keep the 88 generation student leaders and Khin Nyunt detained until after the registration of candidates. They were in fact freed shortly before that.
The favourite method of the hardliners is to quote the former military supremo Than Shwe — who has officially retired by living in a mansion not far from the president's palace. The hardliners — especially Aung Thaung, the former industry minister and now a leading member of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development party (USDP) — continuously claim that old man would be upset by a massive prisoner release in order to dissuade the president from speeding up the process. These old reactionaries from the former regime, who were close the old man before and still see him occasionally, are at the forefront of the battle to limit reform.
Everything is being tossed into the arena in this silent, dirty war. The hardliners are using every hiccup and problem to hound the liberals. The failure of the peace talks with the Kachin is strengthening the hardliners' hands. Now they are waiting for social unrest and possible political demonstrations to use against Thein Sein and his liberal supporters as a pretext to attack the government's recent release of political prisoners -- behind the scenes of course.
For the moment there is something of an impasse, at least until the byelections are over. The result of these elections may then determine the pace and extent of reform in the future. Some 20% of ministers are liberals and 20% are hardliners, with 60% sitting on the fence waiting to see who wins, the railways minister told foreign diplomats recently. It is a precarious game the liberals are playing according to Burmese officials close to them. "If we lose we'll end up in jail" one of them confided. The writer is a former Current Affairs Editor, Asia, BBC World Service.