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US-Pak rapprochement: A strategic reflection

Abu Syed Muhammad Belal
UNCERTAINTY has ruled Pakistan's history. After the Salala check post attack by Nato which took the lives of 24 Pakistani army soldiers, Pakistan declared to stop cooperating with the US. It cut off the Nato supply route to Afghanistan. Recently announcement has come that Pakistan is going to reopen Nato supply routes, allow the US military trainers including Special Forces teams into Pakistan and resume close cooperation with the CIA in targeting militants who use the Pakistani side of the border as a safe haven and breeding ground for extremism as early as April or May. According to the terms of engagement of nations in the international system, "there are no permanent allies, no permanent friends, only permanent interests." The US and Pakistan both are allies, not friends: they fight together, but they do not like and believe each other. What factors do lead Pakistan cooperate again? Is it a pressure from the United States or a greater strategic demand of the time?
Internally, both civilian government and army need the US. The Memogate scandal is evident of how the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is fearful of army’s potential takeover. The issue is that a week after the killing of Laden in Abbotabad, allegedly, a memorandum from President Asif Ali Zardari was sent to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen asking to convey a 'strong, urgent and direct message to General Kayani' not to stage coup against PPP-led government. As China is not rigid with military rule in Pakistan, America is the only resort for seeking refuge of military intervention in power. Similarly, America needs Pakistan's support in order to defeat Talibans. Therefore civilian government is going to make new terms of engagement and resume ties with the US up to the level that serves the interests of both parties. On the other hand, the military of Pakistan is fed with the money from America. The military aid from the US largely helps this dinosaur to survive against its hobgoblin enemy, India. In a reflection of the uneasy relationship between the United States and Pakistan, Congress agreed on a defense bill that includes a provision to freeze some $700 million in assistance in December 2011. Moreover, India is rapidly increasing its military capability. It has built military partnership with the US, Israel and Russia. For the first time in January 2012 Indian Navy has taken in its possession a nuclear submarine from Russia. It is also developing its own nuclear-powered submarine. Policy makers in Islamabad believe that rising military strength of India has a direct bearing for Pakistan.
Regionally, during the sour time with America, relations with China attained new heights. China publicly announced to stand beside Pakistan in any given situation. Both countries celebrated 2011 as year of friendship. Why does special friendship year needed at this moment?
Analysts say that it has a demonstration value. America, Afghanistan and India have to take notes of that. But does China want a Pakistan absolutely sitting on Chinese lap? Foreign policy direction of this rising Asian power is to ensure peaceful development. For that end, its declared posture is to create a peaceful environment where economic development can be attained. The underlying message is that it prioritizes a region which is stable and peaceful.
Amid the tension with Pakistan and the US, a triple alliance comprising the US, India and Afghanistan is likely to emerge in South Asia. The US wants India play a vigorous role in Afghan state building. India is now one of the biggest partners of Afghanistan in this regard. Indo-Afghan partnership is institutionalized by a strategic deal in November 2011. Delhi's presence in Afghanistan threatens both China and Pakistan. China dislikes embroiling in tension with the US in South Asia. It has a long historic dispute with India in Arunachal Pradesh and in Kashmir. Therefore extending this sphere of disputes in other areas is definitely a bad choice. Moreover, internal milieu of Pakistan is destabilizing. China wants a Pakistan internally stable and externally contributing to a peaceful region. In a situation like this, Pakistan has no alternative to restoring relations with the US.
Diplomacy is the business of interests between states. Any diplomatic rapprochement in international politics therefore involves the greater interests of nation-states. The foreign policy of Pakistan is now steered by two broad objectives security and development. Civilian and military aid from the US can only help to reach this goal. Pakistan wants the US not to tail too much to India. In fact, Americans are in a mess in South Asia. Neither they can leave nor lead. The policy of Pakistan seems to engage America in prolonging the war in Afghanistan while destroying the enemies tearing Pakistan apart. After all, history is a witness; both the US and Pakistan need each other!
The writer is a Strategic Issue Analyst, BIPSS.